ABSTRACT: In the Atlantic Ocean, Octopus insularis (Cephalopoda: Octopodidae) Leite and Haimovici, 2008 inhabits warm and shallow habitats, where it is one of the main targets of cephalopod fisheries. Considering the current trend of increasing seawater temperature, warm-water species are expected to expand their geographic distribution ranges. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is an important tool to help describe likely changes in geographic distribution patterns of a species in different climatic scenarios. To evaluate changes in the distribution of Octopus insularis over time, the maximum entropy approach was used, which estimated a suitable climatic niche for Octopus under 5 scenarios of global climate change. Four environmental variables were chosen to model the suitable climatic niche of O. insularis in the present, past, and future scenarios. The ENM in different climatic scenarios showed good validation and pointed out an increase of the suitable niche for O. insularis settlement, from the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kya) up to future scenarios. In the future projections, suitable niche space will potentially increase in the tropical Atlantic compared to the current distribution. Modeling pointed out the possibility of expansion from the current range of the species to the temperate northern Atlantic, temperate South America, and temperate South Africa. This may cause potential threats, such as possible extinction of endemic species, habitat displacement of native octopuses, and reorganizations in the trophic chain.

中文翻译：

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随时间变化的全球气候变化影响了大西洋章鱼的环境生态位分布

摘要：在大西洋中，八爪鱼（Cephalopoda：Octopodidae）Leite和Haimovici在2008年栖息于温暖和浅水的栖息地，这是头足类渔业的主要目标之一。考虑到当前海水温度升高的趋势，预计温水物种将扩大其地理分布范围。生态位模型（ENM）是帮助描述物种在不同气候情景下地理分布模式可能变化的重要工具。为了评估章鱼分布随时间的变化，使用了最大熵方法，该方法估计了章鱼的合适气候位在全球气候变化的5种情况下 在当前，过去和将来的情景中，选择了四个环境变量来模拟insularis适宜的气候生态位。ENM在不同气候情况下均显示出良好的验证性，并指出了针对海岛稻的适宜生态位的增加。从最后一次冰川最大值（21 kya）到将来的情景，进行定居。在未来的预测中，与目前的分布相比，热带大西洋上合适的利基空间可能会增加。建模指出了从当前物种范围扩展到温带北部大西洋，南美温带和南非温带的可能性。这可能会导致潜在威胁，例如特有物种的灭绝，天然章鱼的栖息地移位以及营养链中的重组。