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A comprehensive analysis of projected changes of extreme precipitation indices in West Rapti River basin, Nepal under changing climate
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-14 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.6866 Rocky Talchabhadel 1, 2 , Anil Aryal 3 , Kenji Kawaike 2 , Kazuki Yamanoi 2 , Hajime Nakagawa 2
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-14 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.6866 Rocky Talchabhadel 1, 2 , Anil Aryal 3 , Kenji Kawaike 2 , Kazuki Yamanoi 2 , Hajime Nakagawa 2
Affiliation
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A better understanding of variations of extreme precipitation in space and time is essential for hydro‐meteorological research and effective management of water resources. We used 11 extreme precipitation indices, some additional indices, and four seasonal precipitation based on daily precipitation data from 24 meteorological stations in West Rapti River basin (WRRB) of Nepal during 1986–2015 as the baseline, and three future periods (Near Future or NF: 2025–2049, Mid Future or MF: 2050–2074, and Far Future or FF: 2075–2099). This study also attempts to correlate the streamflow at downstream station of the basin with extreme precipitation indices in the baseline period and employed the relation to estimate future streamflow. We used five climate models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) to project future extreme precipitation indices. A linear scaling method of bias correction was used to reduce the biases in precipitation data of the climate models. Mann–Kendall test in conjunction with Theil–Sen's slope method was employed for trend analyses and their statistical significance. We found that extreme precipitation indices related to very wet days, extremely wet days, maximum 1‐day, and maximum 5‐day precipitation amounts are anticipated to increase significantly in future days. Our results showed percentage contribution of maximum 1‐day, and maximum 5‐day precipitation amounts to annual precipitation are important indicators of extreme precipitation. Higher percentage contributions were observed in lower regions indicating higher occurrences of very heavy precipitation in flatter topography. The increase in rainfall extremes would increase the possibility of frequent hydrological disasters in WRRB in the coming days. Generally, river valleys attain less extreme precipitation and are comparatively drier. We believe the findings of this study are useful for water resources management in WRRB under changing climate.
中文翻译：
气候变化下尼泊尔西拉提河流域极端降水指数预计变化的综合分析
更好地了解时空上极端降水的变化对于水文气象研究和有效管理水资源至关重要。我们以1986-2015年尼泊尔西拉提比河流域（WRRB）24个气象站的每日降水数据为基础，使用11个极端降水指数，一些其他指数和四个季节性降水作为基线，并使用了三个未来时期（临近未来或NF：2025–2049，中期或MF：2050–2044，以及Far Future或FF：2075–2099）。这项研究还试图将流域下游站点的流量与基线期的极端降水指数相关联，并利用该关系估算未来的流量。我们在两个有代表性的浓度路径（RCP 4.5和8.5）下使用了耦合模型比较项目（CMIP5）第五阶段的五个气候模型来预测未来的极端降水指数。偏差校正的线性缩放方法用于减少气候模型降水数据中的偏差。Mann–Kendall检验与Theil–Sen的斜率方法一起用于趋势分析及其统计意义。我们发现与极湿天，极湿天，最大1天和最大5天降水量相关的极端降水指数预计在未来几天会显着增加。我们的结果表明，最大1天和最大5天降水量对年降水量的百分比贡献是极端降水的重要指标。在较低的区域观察到较高的百分比贡献，表明在平坦的地形中出现大量强降水的可能性更高。极端降雨的增加将增加未来几天WRRB频繁发生水文灾害的可能性。通常，流域的极端降水较少，相对较干燥。我们认为，这项研究的结果对于气候变化下的WRRB水资源管理非常有用。
更新日期：2020-10-14
中文翻译：
气候变化下尼泊尔西拉提河流域极端降水指数预计变化的综合分析
更好地了解时空上极端降水的变化对于水文气象研究和有效管理水资源至关重要。我们以1986-2015年尼泊尔西拉提比河流域（WRRB）24个气象站的每日降水数据为基础，使用11个极端降水指数，一些其他指数和四个季节性降水作为基线，并使用了三个未来时期（临近未来或NF：2025–2049，中期或MF：2050–2044，以及Far Future或FF：2075–2099）。这项研究还试图将流域下游站点的流量与基线期的极端降水指数相关联，并利用该关系估算未来的流量。我们在两个有代表性的浓度路径（RCP 4.5和8.5）下使用了耦合模型比较项目（CMIP5）第五阶段的五个气候模型来预测未来的极端降水指数。偏差校正的线性缩放方法用于减少气候模型降水数据中的偏差。Mann–Kendall检验与Theil–Sen的斜率方法一起用于趋势分析及其统计意义。我们发现与极湿天，极湿天，最大1天和最大5天降水量相关的极端降水指数预计在未来几天会显着增加。我们的结果表明，最大1天和最大5天降水量对年降水量的百分比贡献是极端降水的重要指标。在较低的区域观察到较高的百分比贡献，表明在平坦的地形中出现大量强降水的可能性更高。极端降雨的增加将增加未来几天WRRB频繁发生水文灾害的可能性。通常，流域的极端降水较少，相对较干燥。我们认为，这项研究的结果对于气候变化下的WRRB水资源管理非常有用。
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