This paper aims to simulate land-use and land cover (LULC) changes in Mashhad metropolitan area. These changes were measured for 2016-2020 and forecast for 2020-2030. To this end, Sentinel-2A satellite imagery, Cellular Automata (CA), and the Markov chain model in ArcGIS and TerrSet software were used. LULC was classified into seven groups, using maximum likelihood estimation, KAPPA coefficient, and ROC curve. According to the study results, the area is 105243.6 hectares, and there are 177 rural settlements (2016). During the period 2016-2020 in the study area, 7845 hectares of LULC changes occurred. Most of the land-use increase is associated with barren lands with 7174 hectares (91.45%) and built-up with 436.32 hectares (5.56%). In the same period, the highest decrease in land-use is related to mass and light vegetation with 1335 hectares (17.01%) and 5241 hectares (66.81%), respectively. Predicting LULC change for the period 2020-2030 using the CA Markov chain model showed that the land-use change would occur in the study area of 2626.2 hectares. Three land uses with positive changes (barren lands 5.5%, built lands 13.5% and mountainous lands 2.32%) and four cases (light vegetation-5.70%, dense vegetation -23.35%, Road 0.34%, and water level (-23.40%) will face negative changes. To confirm these classifications' accuracy, the KAPPA coefficient = 0.58 and the area under the curve =0.61 in the ROC curve were calculated. Spatial-temporal conversion in land-use from agriculture and vegetation to the barren land and built-up will occur mostly in the north and east of the city. These findings provide a basis to support decision-making and planning systems for sustainable land-use development.

本文旨在模拟马什哈德市区的土地利用和土地覆被（LULC）变化。这些变化是针对2016-2020年进行了测量，并针对2020-2030年进行了预测。为此，使用了Sentinel-2A卫星图像，Cellular Automata（CA）以及ArcGIS和TerrSet软件中的Markov链模型。使用最大似然估计，KAPPA系数和ROC曲线将LULC分为7组。根据研究结果，面积为105243.6公顷，有177个农村居民点（2016年）。在研究区域2016-2020年期间，发生了7845公顷的土地利用，土地利用变化。大部分土地利用增加与贫瘠土地有关，面积为7174公顷（91.45％），而建成土地面积则为436.32公顷（5.56％）。在同一时期，土地利用的最大减少与1335公顷的轻质植被有关（17。01％）和5241公顷（66.81％）。使用CA Markov链模型预测2020-2030年期间的LULC变化表明，土地利用变化将在2626.2公顷的研究区域内发生。发生积极变化的三种土地用途（荒地5.5％，已建土地13.5％，山地2.32％）和四种情况（轻度植被5.70％，茂密植被-23.35％，道路0.34％，水位（-23.40％）为了确认这些分类的准确性，计算了ROC曲线中的KAPPA系数= 0.58和曲线下面积= 0.61。从农业和植被到贫瘠土地的土地利用时空转换并建立上升主要发生在城市的北部和东部。