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Analyzing the impact of the media campaign and rapid testing for COVID-19 as an optimal control problem in East Java, Indonesia
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals ( IF 5.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110364
Dipo Aldila 1
Affiliation  

Without any vaccine or medical intervention to cure the infected individual from COVID-19, the non-pharmaceutical intervention become the most reasonable intervention against the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we proposed a deterministic model governed by a system of nonlinear differential equations which consider the intervention of media campaign to increase human awareness, and rapid testing to track the undetected cases in the field. Analysis of the autonomous model shows the existence of transcritical bifurcation at a basic reproduction number equal to one. We estimate our parameter using the incidence data from East Java, Indonesia. Using these parameters, we analyze the sensitivity of the parameters in determining the size of the basic reproduction number. An optimal control problem which transforms media campaign and rapid testing as a time-dependent control was conducted also in this article. Cost-effectiveness analysis using the Infection averted ratio (IAR) and the Average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) conducted to analyze the best strategies to eradicate COVID-19 spread. We observe that the combination of the media campaign and rapid testing as time-dependent interventions reduces the number of an infected individual significantly and also minimizes the economic burden due to these strategies in East Java.



中文翻译:


分析媒体宣传活动和快速测试 COVID-19 作为印度尼西亚东爪哇最优控制问题的影响



在没有任何疫苗或医疗干预来治愈 COVID-19 感染者的情况下,非药物干预成为对抗 COVID-19 传播的最合理干预措施。在本文中,我们提出了一种由非线性微分方程组控制的确定性模型,该模型考虑了媒体活动的干预以提高人类意识,以及快速测试以跟踪现场未发现的病例。对自主模型的分析表明,在基本再生数等于 1 时存在跨临界分岔。我们使用印度尼西亚东爪哇的发病率数据来估计我们的参数。利用这些参数,我们分析了参数在确定基本再生数大小方面的敏感性。本文还提出了一个最优控制问题,将媒体活动和快速测试转变为时间相关控制。使用感染避免率 (IAR) 和平均成本效益比 (ACER) 进行成本效益分析,以分析根除 COVID-19 传播的最佳策略。我们观察到,媒体宣传活动和快速检测相结合作为依赖时间的干预措施,显着减少了感染者的数量,并最大限度地减少了东爪哇这些策略带来的经济负担。

更新日期:2020-10-30
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