Abstract

For Moscow and the territory including some regions in the center of European Russia, changes in the following indices characterizing temperature extremes are analyzed: the seasonal number of days with temperature above the 90th percentile and below the 10th percentile, the seasonal duration of heat waves and cold waves, and the magnitude of the largest anomalies in a season (5th and 95th percentiles of average daily temperatures of the season). The long-period changes accompanying the modern warming are analyzed, as well as their features related to the decadal oscillations in the Atlantic-European circulation systems. In view of this, as well as of the issue of formation conditions for significant seasonal anomalies, the connection between the indices of extremes and the circulation indices is considered and described. To assess the impact of the Moscow heat island on the extreme temperature statistics, the estimates are obtained for Moscow and for the station of Mozhaisk located close to Moscow but out of the heat island impact area.

中文翻译：

---

莫斯科和俄罗斯中部地区的季节性极端气温变化

摘要

对于莫斯科和包括俄罗斯中部某些地区在内的领土，分析了以下表征极端温度的指标的变化：温度高于90％且低于10％的季节天数，热浪的持续时间和冷浪，以及一个季节中最大异常的强度（该季节平均每日温度的第5个和第95个百分位）。分析了现代变暖带来的长期变化，以及与大西洋-欧洲循环系统年代际振荡有关的特征。鉴于此，以及关于重大季节性异常的形成条件问题，考虑并描述了极端指数与环流指数之间的联系。