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CO2 Increase Experiments Using the CESM: Relationship to Climate Sensitivity and Comparison of CESM1 to CESM2
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems ( IF 4.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-14 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002120
J. T. Bacmeister 1 , C. Hannay 1 , B. Medeiros 1 , A. Gettelman 1 , R. Neale 1 , H. B. Fredriksen 2 , W. H. Lipscomb 1 , I. Simpson 1 , D. A. Bailey 1 , M. Holland 1 , K. Lindsay 1 , B. Otto‐Bliesner 1
Affiliation  

We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO2 concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5 K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly—2.1 K in CESM1 and 2.0 K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab‐ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully coupled Earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO2 increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

中文翻译:

使用CESM的二氧化碳增加实验:与气候敏感性的关系以及CESM1与CESM2的比较

我们研究了社区地球系统模型版本1和2(CESM1和CESM2)对大气CO 2浓度突然翻两番(4xCO2)和每年增加1%CO 2的响应浓度(1%CO2)。提出了关于CESM1和CESM2的平衡气候敏感性(ECS)的不同估计。所有估计都表明,CESM2的灵敏度比CESM1提高了1.5 K或更多。同时,源自1%CO2实验的CESM1和CESM2的瞬态气候响应(TCR)并没有显着变化-CESM1中为2.1 K,CESM2中为2.0K。初始强迫的增加以及短波辐射反馈的增强是导致CESM2中ECS增加的原因。区域辐射反馈的分解及其对全球反馈的贡献表明,南洋在4xCO2实验的整体行为中起着关键作用,在CESM1和CESM2中约占总短波反馈的50%。CESM1和CESM2之间的短波反馈增加中,约一半来自南洋,而热带海洋的贡献也相当大。使用热力学平板海洋模型(SOM)对ECS进行的产量估算与在相同CO水平下的完全耦合地球系统模型(ESM)实验所得的估算显着一致2增加。最后,我们表明,在每个模型的1%CO2实验中,CESM1和CESM2中TCR的相似性掩盖了升温中的显着区域差异。
更新日期:2020-11-12
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