The contributions of climate change and production area expansion to drought risk for maize in China over the last four decades,International Journal of Climatology

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › Int. J. Climatol. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

The contributions of climate change and production area expansion to drought risk for maize in China over the last four decades
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-13 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.6885
Yanling Song ₁ , Jinfeng Tian ₂ , Hans W. Linderholm _{3,

4} , Chunyi Wang ₁ , Zhaorong Ou ₅ , Deliang Chen ₃

Affiliation

Maize is one of China's most important crops and is profoundly sensitive to drought. Using weather and county‐level maize yield data, the drought risk for maize in China was estimated for the period 1971–2010. The results show that drought risk has increased in China over the last 40 years, and that areas experiencing moderate to high drought risk have expanded, particularly in Northeast China. The main reasons for the observed changes are increased drought hazard associated with climate change, and increased exposure of maize to drought due to an expanded production area. Drought risk over all of China increased by 55% in the 2000s compared to the 1970s. While around 93% of the increase in drought risk in the maize production regions is due to increased drought exposure, 7% is attributable to climate change. In Northeast China alone, drought risk increased by 129% from the 1970s to the 2000s, which is the sum of an 86% increase caused by greater drought exposure, associated with expansion of the production area, and a 14% increase driven by climate change. The results indicate that the drought hazard has increased by around 13%, and drought risk has increased by 110% for each 1°C rise in annual mean temperature in Northeast China over the past 40 years. Maize yield losses have increased by around 4% per 1°C increase in annual mean temperature in this region. The sensitivity of maize to drought means that climate change is likely to have significant negative impact on future maize productivity, and China's export and import of maize is likely to be affected.

更新日期：2020-10-13

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

公开下载

阅读更多本刊最新论文本刊介绍/投稿指南

全部期刊列表>>