Abstract In practice, the performance of the structure is studied based on a seismic scenario composed of independent single earthquakes. But in real life, the structure is subjected to multiple earthquakes during its typical design working life, which will produce an evolution of damage with time.The main purpose of this paper is to quantify the liquefaction-induced damage of an embankment due to sequential earthquakes during a defined working life. Moreover, a non-parametric survival analysis is used to estimate the time (in years) until a defined damage level is reached during a specific time interval. For this purpose, a site was chosen where its seismicity and its Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) were identified. First, a site-specific seismic analysis was assessed, that consists in finding the relation between the Intensity Measures (IM) and the Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP). Second, in order to estimate the lifetime distribution as well as the Mean Time To Failure (MTTF) of the embankment, survival functions were drawn. The used time histories were stochastically generated from synthetic ground motion models. In this study, an elastoplastic multi-mechanism soil behavior model was used.According to the obtained results, after the sequential loading, the cumulative damage is either progressive with or without extensive damages or sudden with drastic damages. Moreover, based on the chosen ground motion model, the embankment reaches a moderate damage level before its defined working life. In addition, a numerical parametric analysis is performed in order to quantify the impact of considering (or not) the loading history and the recovery time between each ground motion on the obtained MTTF of the embankment. This study pointed out on the importance of the history of loading since it affects the overall performance of the embankment. Finally, two synthetic ground motion models were assessed in order to generalize, to a certain extent, this work.

中文翻译：

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连续地震作用下可液化路堤的生存分析

摘要 在实践中，基于由独立单次地震组成的地震情景来研究结构的性能。但在现实生活中，结构在其典型的设计工作寿命期间会受到多次地震的影响，随着时间的推移会产生破坏的演变。 本文的主要目的是量化连续地震引起的路堤液化引起的破坏。在规定的工作寿命期间。此外，非参数生存分析用于估计在特定时间间隔内达到定义的损坏水平所需的时间（以年为单位）。为此，选择了一个地点，在该地点确定其地震活动性和概率地震危害分析 (PSHA)。首先，评估了特定地点的地震分析，这包括找出强度测量 (IM) 和工程需求参数 (EDP) 之间的关系。其次，为了估计路堤的寿命分布以及平均失效时间（MTTF），绘制了生存函数。使用的时间历程是从合成地面运动模型中随机生成的。本研究采用弹塑性多机制土体行为模型。根据所得结果，在连续加载后，累积损伤要么是渐进的，有或没有广泛的破坏，要么是突然的，有剧烈的破坏。此外，基于所选的地面运动模型，路堤在其定义的工作寿命之前达到中等损坏水平。此外，进行数值参数分析以量化考虑（或不考虑）加载历史和每次地面运动之间的恢复时间对获得的路堤 MTTF 的影响。本研究指出了加载历史的重要性，因为它会影响路堤的整体性能。最后，评估了两个合成地震动模型，以便在一定程度上概括这项工作。