Abstract Farmyards present potential point sources of phosphorus loss to watercourses, affecting their ecological quality and attainment of environmental goals. Unlike many relatively simple point sources, farmyards are complex sub-systems within the wider agricultural setting, including individual runoff, management and infrastructure factors which influence the risk (likelihood and magnitude) of phosphorus loss. Comparison across these factors is confounded by heterogeneity in farmyard design and management, however, weighting of individual factors will support estimation of the relative riskiness of farmyards. This will allow identification of appropriate mitigation measures and evaluation of cost-benefit ratios. The aim of this study is to evaluate the riskiness of runoff, management, and infrastructure factors on phosphorus loss from farmyards to water, using expert opinion and to evaluate whether those estimates are supported by the literature. A survey of research, advisory and policy stakeholders was conducted (147 respondents) in which individuals rated the importance of individual factors from 0 (having no impact) to 10 (having critical impact) on phosphorus loss from farmyards. The most highly ranked factors were within the infrastructure category, followed by runoff and finally management factors. Factors relating to silage effluent and slurry storage were assigned the greatest risk (≥8.4). Runoff factors were also high risk but may be difficult to mitigate compared to infrastructure. Management factors were rated lower by all stakeholder groups but may offer low cost options to offset more intransigent risks. High consensus was observed between stakeholder groups, with significant differences in risk ratings for only 8 out of 29 individual factors.

中文翻译：

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农家院磷流失风险因素的证据与认知

摘要 农家院是水道磷流失的潜在点源，影响其生态质量和环境目标的实现。与许多相对简单的点源不同，农场是更广泛的农业环境中的复杂子系统，包括影响磷损失风险（可能性和大小）的个体径流、管理和基础设施因素。农场设计和管理的异质性混淆了这些因素之间的比较，但是，单个因素的权重将支持对农场相对风险的估计。这将有助于确定适当的缓解措施并评估成本效益比。本研究的目的是评估径流、管理、和基础设施因素影响从农场到水的磷损失，使用专家意见并评估这些估计是否得到文献支持。对研究、咨询和政策利益相关者（147 名受访者）进行了一项调查，其中个人从 0（没有影响）到 10（有重大影响）对农场磷损失的个人因素的重要性进行了评级。排名最高的因素是基础设施类别，其次是径流，最后是管理因素。与青贮废水和泥浆储存相关的因素被指定为最大的风险 (≥8.4)。径流因素也是高风险，但与基础设施相比可能难以减轻。所有利益相关者团体对管理因素的评级较低，但可能提供低成本的选择来抵消更多顽固的风险。