In the wake of the unprecedented global scientific output boom, are top-tier journals such as the FT50 journals following suit? If these prestigious journals consistently increase their publication volumes, will their impact factors be affected? Drawing on the Mann–Kendall trend test method, this study analysed time series trends of the FT50 journals’ annual publication volumes and impact factor ratios (IFR) over a 15 year period. The results indicate that half of the FT50 journals have consistently increased their publication volumes over the years. Although to increase publication volumes is riskier than to stay put, it has a significantly higher probability of increasing the IFR, and therefore keeping pace with other top journals. However, the expanding of publication volumes must be carried out cautiously, as the study also finds that growing too fast may lead to opposite effects.

中文翻译：

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出版量的增加会“稀释”知名期刊的影响因子吗？FT50期刊趋势分析

在前所未有的全球科学产出热潮之后，FT50等顶级期刊是否也纷纷效仿？如果这些知名期刊不断增加发表量，它们的影响因子会受到影响吗？本研究利用 Mann-Kendall 趋势检验方法，分析了 FT50 期刊在 15 年期间的年度出版量和影响因子比 (IFR) 的时间序列趋势。结果表明，半数 FT50 期刊多年来一直在增加其出版量。尽管增加发表量比呆在原地风险更大，但增加 IFR 的可能性要高得多，因此与其他顶级期刊保持同步。但是，出版量的扩大必须谨慎进行，