Spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events: a clear and present danger,Ecology Letters

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Spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events: a clear and present danger
Ecology Letters ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-12 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.13620
Rosalind J. Dodd _{1,

2} , David R. Chadwick ₂ , Ian M. Harris ₂ , Adrian Hines ₃ , Dan Hollis ₃ , Theodoros Economou ₄ , Dylan Gwynn‐Jones ₅ , John Scullion ₅ , David A. Robinson ₆ , David L. Jones _{2,

7}

Affiliation

Extreme weather events have become a dominant feature of the narrative surrounding changes in global climate with large impacts on ecosystem stability, functioning and resilience; however, understanding of their risk of co‐occurrence at the regional scale is lacking. Based on the UK Met Office’s long‐term temperature and rainfall records, we present the first evidence demonstrating significant increases in the magnitude, direction of change and spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events since 1961. Combining this new understanding with land‐use data sets allowed us to assess the likely consequences on future agricultural production and conservation priority areas. All land‐uses are impacted by the increasing risk of at least one extreme event and conservation areas were identified as the hotspots of risk for the co‐occurrence of multiple event types. Our findings provide a basis to regionally guide land‐use optimisation, land management practices and regulatory actions preserving ecosystem services against multiple climate threats.

中文翻译：

极端天气事件的空间共定位：明显的当前危险

极端天气事件已成为全球气候变化叙事的主要特征，对生态系统的稳定性，功能和复原力具有重大影响；但是，缺乏对他们在区域范围内同时发生的风险的了解。根据英国气象局的长期温度和降雨记录，我们提供了第一个证据，表明自1961年以来极端天气事件的幅度，变化方向和空间共地化程度显着增加。数据集使我们能够评估对未来农业生产和保护优先领域的可能后果。所有土地利用都受到至少一个极端事件风险增加的影响，保护区被确定为多种事件同时发生的风险热点。我们的发现为在区域上指导土地利用优化，土地管理实践和保护生态系统服务免受多种气候威胁的监管行动提供了基础。

更新日期：2020-12-12

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