Numerous studies have documented changes in the seasonal timing of organisms' growth and reproduction in response to climate warming. These changes correlate with documented changes in species' abundance, but mechanisms linking these trends remain elusive. We investigated the joint demographic effects of advanced reproductive phenology and warming on a globally invasive plant (Carduus nutans) in a field experiment, documenting a substantial shift toward completion of the life cycle at younger ages. Demographic modeling projected 71% of warmed individuals flower as annuals, compared to 61% under current conditions. As this species only reproduces once, this represents a major acceleration of the life cycle. We project a 15% increase in this invader's population growth rate. We show that rising temperatures accelerate this invasive species' population growth by increasing the average size of reproducing individuals; increasing the proportion of individuals that survive to reproduce; and increasing the fraction that reproduce as annuals. Major increases in population growth in this, and potentially many other, invasive species will threaten food security and require careful planning to avoid significant environmental and economic impacts.

中文翻译：

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气候变暖和物候变化加速入侵植物生命周期

许多研究已经记录了生物体生长和繁殖的季节性时间因气候变暖而发生的变化。这些变化与记录在案的物种丰度变化相关，但将这些趋势联系起来的机制仍然难以捉摸。我们在田间试验中研究了先进的生殖物候和变暖对全球入侵植物（Carduus nutans）的联合人口统计影响，记录了在年轻时完成生命周期的重大转变。人口统计模型预测，71% 的温暖个体每年开花，而在当前条件下，这一比例为 61%。由于该物种只繁殖一次，这代表了生命周期的重大加速。我们预计这个入侵者的人口增长率会增加 15%。我们表明，气温升高通过增加繁殖个体的平均大小来加速这种入侵物种的种群增长；增加生存繁殖的个体比例；并增加一年生繁殖的比例。人口增长的大幅增加以及许多其他潜在的入侵物种将威胁粮食安全，需要仔细规划以避免重大的环境和经济影响。