Abstract Silvicultural treatments are a common tool for increasing commercial timber production. Their impact on the growth or mortality of the remaining stand is well researched. This study focuses on the economic aspects of silvicultural treatments in neotropical forests. We have selected liberation treatments and consider them to be investments that are expected to pay for themselves through the additional growth of released trees and corresponding timber prices following a 30-year rotation period. The study is based on empirical data collected on experimental sites of 10 km2 in Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago. To determine the timber price or additional growth required to cover the treatment costs, we used a reverse approach based on net present values. The treatment costs range between US$4.5 and US$8.9 per released tree. The additional growth required per released tree to cover the expenses for silvicultural treatments depends on treatment costs and achievable timber prices and varies from 0.02 to 3.5 m3. Conversely, if a potential increase in growth is assumed, timber prices must be between 34 and 578 US$ m-3 to at least cover the cost of treatments. We found a high sensitivity of profitability related to the additional growth, the timber prices to be achieved, and the discount rate chosen, which significantly increases the financial risk of silvicultural treatments as an investment tool. The decision whether to use silvicultural treatments or not is often solely guided by the expected improvement in tree growth. We, however, show that growth alone is insufficient as a decision criterion. While treatment costs are known when the decision to implement the measures is made, future timber prices and harvesting costs as well as the additional growth actually achieved are subject to uncertainties. These uncertainties have a decisive influence on the economic risk assessment, which is reflected in the choice of the internal interest rate. Our study demonstrates that investments in silvicultural treatments involve a considerable financial risk and that the decision to carry out silvicultural treatments should always be the subject of a thorough investment calculation.

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新热带森林未来作物树木释放处理——经济盈利能力敏感性的实证研究

摘要 造林处理是增加商业木材产量的常用工具。它们对剩余林分的生长或死亡率的影响得到了很好的研究。本研究侧重于新热带森林造林处理的经济方面。我们选择了解放处理，并将其视为预计通过释放树木的额外生长和 30 年轮换期后相应的木材价格来收回成本的投资。该研究基于在伯利兹、圭亚那、苏里南、特立尼达和多巴哥的 10 平方公里实验场地收集的经验数据。为了确定覆盖处理成本所需的木材价格或额外增长，我们使用了基于净现值的反向方法。每棵释放的树木的处理成本在 4.5 美元到 8.9 美元之间。每棵释放的树木所需的额外生长以支付造林处理的费用取决于处理成本和可实现的木材价格，从 0.02 到 3.5 立方米不等。相反，如果假设潜在的增长增长，木材价格必须在 34 至 578 美元 m-3 之间，以至少支付处理成本。我们发现与额外增长、要实现的木材价格和选择的贴现率相关的盈利能力的高度敏感性，这显着增加了作为投资工具的造林处理的财务风险。是否使用造林处理的决定通常完全取决于树木生长的预期改善。然而，我们表明仅增长作为决策标准是不够的。虽然在决定实施这些措施时处理成本是已知的，但未来的木材价格和采伐成本以及实际实现的额外增长受制于不确定性。这些不确定性对经济风险评估具有决定性影响，这体现在内部利率的选择上。我们的研究表明，对造林处理的投资涉及相当大的财务风险，进行造林处理的决定应始终是彻底投资计算的主题。