This study looks into the question to what extent long-term change patterns of observed temperature and rainfall over Europe can be attributed to dynamical causes, in other words: Are the observed changes due to a change in frequency of the patterns or have the patterns’ dynamical properties changed? By using a combination of daily meteorological data and a European weather-type classification, the long-term monthly mean temperature and precipitation were calculated for each weather-type. Subsequently, the observed weather-type sequences were used to construct analogue time series for temperature and precipitation which only include the dynamical component of the long-term variability since 1961. The results show that only a fraction of about 20% of the past temperature rise since 1990, which for example amounted to 1 °C at the Potsdam Climate Station can be explained by dynamical changes, i.e. most of the weather-types have become warmer. Concerning long-term changes of seasonal rainfall patterns, a fraction of more than 60% is considerably higher. Moreover, the results indicate that for rainfall compared with temperature, the decadal variability and trends of the dynamical component follow the observed ones much stronger. Consequently, most of the explained seasonal rainfall variances can be linked to changes in weather-type sequences in Potsdam and over Europe. The dynamical contribution to long-term changes in annual and seasonal rainfall patterns dominates due to the fact that the alternation of wet and dry weather-types (e.g. the types Trough or High pressure over Central Europe), their frequencies and duration has significantly changed in the last decades.

这项研究调查的问题是，欧洲观测到的温度和降雨的长期变化模式在多大程度上可归因于动力原因，换句话说：观测到的变化是由于模式频率的变化引起还是具有模式的变化？动力特性改变了吗？通过结合每日气象数据和欧洲天气类型分类，可以计算出每种天气类型的长期每月平均温度和降水量。随后，使用观测到的天气类型序列来构建温度和降水的模拟时间序列，这些时间序列仅包括自1961年以来长期变化的动态分量。结果表明，过去温度升高的比例仅为约20％自1990年以来，可以通过动态变化来解释例如波茨坦气候站的最高温度为1°C，即大多数天气类型已经变暖。关于季节性降雨模式的长期变化，超过60％的比例要高得多。此外，结果表明，与温度相比，降雨的年代际变化和动力分量趋势遵循观测到的强得多。因此，大多数解释的季节性降雨变化都可以与波茨坦和整个欧洲的天气类型序列变化相关。由于潮湿和干燥天气类型（例如，大多数天气类型已经变暖。关于季节性降雨模式的长期变化，超过60％的比例要高得多。此外，结果表明，对于降雨与温度相比，年代际变化和动力分量趋势遵循观测到的强得多。因此，大多数解释的季节性降雨变化都可以与波茨坦和整个欧洲的天气类型序列变化相关。由于湿润和干燥天气类型（例如，雨水和雨水的类型）的交替变化，对年度和季节性降雨模式的长期变化的动态贡献起主导作用。大多数天气类型已经变暖。关于季节性降雨模式的长期变化，超过60％的比例要高得多。此外，结果表明，对于降雨与温度相比，年代际变化和动力分量趋势遵循观测到的强得多。因此，大多数解释的季节性降雨变化都可以与波茨坦和整个欧洲的天气类型序列变化相关。由于湿润和干燥天气类型（例如，雨水和雨水的类型）的交替变化，对年度和季节性降雨模式的长期变化的动态贡献起主导作用。动力分量的年代际变化和趋势遵循观察到的更强。因此，大多数解释的季节性降雨变化都可以与波茨坦和整个欧洲的天气类型序列变化相关。由于湿润和干燥天气类型（例如，雨水和雨水的类型）的交替变化，对年度和季节性降雨模式的长期变化的动态贡献起主导作用。动力分量的年代际变化和趋势遵循观察到的更强。因此，大多数解释的季节性降雨变化都可以与波茨坦和整个欧洲的天气类型序列变化相关。由于湿润和干燥天气类型（例如，雨水和雨水的类型）的交替变化，对年度和季节性降雨模式的长期变化的动态贡献起主导作用。在过去的几十年中，由于中欧的高压或高压，它们的频率和持续时间已经发生了显着变化。