We examine the characteristics that fusion-based generation technologies will need to have if they are to compete in the emerging low-carbon energy system of the mid-twenty-first century. It is likely that the majority of future electric energy demand will be provided by the lowest marginal cost energy technology—which in many regions will be stochastically varying renewable solar and wind electric generation coupled to systems that provide up to a few days of energy storage. Firm low-carbon or zero-carbon resources based on gas-fired turbines with carbon capture, advanced fission reactors, hydroelectric and perhaps engineered geothermal systems will then be used to provide the balance of load in a highly dynamic system operating in competitive markets governed by merit-order pricing mechanisms that select the lowest-cost supplies to meet demand. These firm sources will have overnight capital costs in the range of a few $/Watt, be capable of cycling down to a fraction of their maximum power output, operate profitably at low utilization fraction, and have a suitable unit size of order 100 MWe. If controlled fusion using either magnetic confinement or inertial confinement approaches is to have any chance of providing a material contribution to future electrical energy needs, it must demonstrate these key qualities and at the same time prove robust safety characteristics that avoid the perceived dread risk that plagues nuclear fission power, avoid the generation of long-lived radioactive waste and demonstrate highly reliable operations. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Prospects for high gain inertial fusion energy (part 1)’.

中文翻译：

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受控聚变如何融入二十一世纪中叶新兴的低碳能源体系？

我们研究了基于聚变的发电技术如果要在 21 世纪中叶新兴的低碳能源系统中竞争，它们将需要具备哪些特征。未来的大部分电能需求很可能由最低边际成本能源技术提供——在许多地区，这种技术将随机变化的可再生太阳能和风能发电与提供长达几天能量存储的系统相结合。基于具有碳捕集功能的燃气轮机、先进的裂变反应堆、水力发电和可能设计的地热系统的稳固低碳或零碳资源将用于在高度动态的系统中提供负载平衡，该系统在竞争市场中运行选择成本最低的供应来满足需求的择优定价机制。这些可靠来源的隔夜资本成本将在几美元/瓦的范围内，能够循环到其最大功率输出的一小部分，在低利用率的情况下盈利，并且具有 100 MWe 的合适单位规模。如果使用磁约束或惯性约束方法的受控聚变有任何机会为未来的电能需求提供物质贡献，它必须证明这些关键品质，同时证明强大的安全特性，以避免困扰的感知恐惧风险核裂变动力，避免产生长寿命放射性废物并展示高度可靠的操作。本文是讨论会议问题“高增益惯性聚变能的前景（第 1 部分）”的一部分。