Since the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) on March 02, 2020, Saudi Arabia has not reported quite a rapid COVD-19 spread as seen in America and many European countries. Possible causes include the spread of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. To characterize the transmission of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia, a susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, hospitalized, and recovered dynamical model was formulated, and a basic analysis of the model is presented including model positivity, boundedness, and stability around the disease-free equilibrium. It is found that the model is locally and globally stable around the disease-free equilibrium when . The model parameterized from COVID-19 confirmed cases reported by the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia (MOH) from March 02 till April 14, while some parameters are estimated from the literature. The numerical simulation showed that the model predicted infected curve is in good agreement with the real data of COVID-19-infected cases. An analytical expression of the basic reproduction number is obtained, and the numerical value is estimated as .

中文翻译：

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研究 COVID-19 在沙特阿拉伯王国传播的数学模型


自 2020 年 3 月 2 日确诊首例 SARS-CoV-2 冠状病毒 (COVID-19) 病例以来，沙特阿拉伯尚未报告像美国和许多欧洲国家那样迅速传播的 COVD-19。可能的原因包括无症状 COVID-19 病例的传播。为了表征沙特阿拉伯的 COVID-19 传播特征，建立了易感、暴露、有症状、无症状、住院和康复的动态模型，并对模型进行了基本分析，包括模型的积极性、有界性和疾病周围的稳定性-自由平衡。结果发现，当以下情况时，模型在无病平衡附近局部和全局稳定： 。该模型根据沙特阿拉伯卫生部 (MOH) 3 月 2 日至 4 月 14 日期间报告的 COVID-19 确诊病例进行参数化，同时部分参数是根据文献估计的。数值模拟表明，模型预测的感染曲线与COVID-19感染病例的真实数据吻合良好。得到基本再生数的解析表达式，数值估计为。