Asymmetric climate projections throughout the U.S. Great Plains may intensify the existing latitudinal temperature gradient and magnify the longitudinal precipitation gradient. These potential changes present a unique challenge to understanding the ecological consequences of future climates in the region. Here we investigate how climate change may affect the spatio‐temporal patterns of potential natural vegetation types (PVT) and net primary production (NPP) throughout the 21st century with the global dynamic vegetation model MC2. Simulations were driven by projected climate variables from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. MC2 simulated C3 and C4 grassland, shrubland, forest, and woodland (shrubland + forest) PVTs, and total NPP for each PVT. The largest increases in woodland and grassland NPP occurred in the Northern Plains (17.5% and 4.7%), followed by the Central Plains (10.6% and 0.0%), while NPP in the Southern Plains remained unchanged compared to historic means (1981–2010). A shift from grassland to woodland in the Northern and Central Plains further affected regional NPP; regional woodland NPP increased 72% and 26% in the Northern and Central Plains, respectively, while regional grassland NPP decreased 18% and 12%, respectively. The most pronounced shift in PVT was associated with increasing, rather than decreasing, mean annual precipitation in the Northern Plains where grassland contracted in response to westward expansion of woodland. C3 grassland was gradually replaced by C4 grassland in the Northern Plains by 2080, and only a trace remained at centuries end. C3 grassland decreased to a trace amount ca. 2060 in the Central Plains, while C4 grassland increased slightly. The relative stability of PVTs in the Southern Plains suggests that species and functional trait diversity may buffer grassland responses to future climates by providing the capacity for species reordering. The asymmetric response of simulated vegetation and NPP to 21st century climate change suggests that the provision of ecosystem services—beef cattle production, carbon sequestration, and grassland bird habitat—will be modified in distinct ways along a latitudinal gradient throughout the Great Plains.

中文翻译：

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美国大平原地区潜在的自然植被和NPP对未来气候的响应

美国大平原地区的非对称气候预测可能会加剧现有的纬度温度梯度，并加剧纵向降水梯度。这些潜在的变化为理解该地区未来气候的生态后果提出了独特的挑战。在这里，我们利用全球动态植被模型MC2，研究气候变化如何影响整个21世纪潜在自然植被类型（PVT）和净初级生产（NPP）的时空格局。模拟是由代表浓度路径（RCP）8.5下来自五个全球气候模型的预计气候变量驱动的。MC2模拟了C3和C4草地，灌木丛，森林和林地（灌木丛+森林）的PVT，以及每个PVT的总NPP。林地和草原的NPP增幅最大的地区是北部平原（17.5％和4.7％），其次是中原（10.6％和0.0％），而南部平原的NPP与历史平均值相比保持不变（1981-2010） ）。北部和中部平原由草地转向林地，进一步影响了该地区的核电厂。北部和中部平原地区的林地NPP分别增加了72％和26％，而地区草原的NPP分别减少了18％和12％。PVT的最明显变化与北部平原的年平均降水量增加而不是减少有关，那里的北部草原是由于林地向西扩展而收缩的。到2080年，C3草原逐渐被北部平原的C4草原所取代，几个世纪后才留下痕迹。C3草原约减少到痕量。2060年在中原，而C4草原略有增加。南部平原地区PVT的相对稳定性表明，物种和功能性状多样性可以通过提供物种重新排序的能力来缓冲草地对未来气候的反应。模拟植被和NPP对21世纪气候变化的不对称响应表明，整个大平原地区沿纬度梯度将以不同的方式修改生态系统服务的提供（牛，牛的固碳和草地鸟类的栖息地）。南部平原地区PVT的相对稳定性表明，物种和功能性状多样性可以通过提供物种重新排序的能力来缓冲草地对未来气候的反应。模拟植被和NPP对21世纪气候变化的不对称响应表明，整个大平原地区沿纬度梯度将以不同的方式修改生态系统服务的提供（牛，牛的固碳和草地鸟类的栖息地）。南部平原地区PVT的相对稳定性表明，物种和功能性状多样性可以通过提供物种重新排序的能力来缓冲草地对未来气候的反应。模拟植被和NPP对21世纪气候变化的不对称响应表明，整个大平原地区的纬度梯度将以不同的方式改变生态系统服务的提供（牛，牛的固碳和草地鸟类的栖息地）。