Regions impacted by natural disasters such as earthquakes may suffer enormously from interruptions to their economic systems, which usually have long-lasting and profound impacts. Business closure length (BCL), which refers to the post-disaster period during which businesses completely stop their operation, is a critical indicator of the overall impacts of disaster-induced business interruptions. This study proposes a new analytical framework for modeling the BCL of businesses in different economic sectors, based on the downtimes of their operation factors. The proposed framework first identifies the essential operation factors of businesses in each sector. Then, for each individual business, the framework quantifies the downtimes of its operation factors, and establishes the quantitative relationships between these downtimes and the BCL of the business. A case study of Mianzhu, a county located in the most impacted region during the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake, was conducted to test the performance of the proposed framework. Particularly, the BCL of businesses in the manufacturing and retailing sectors in Mianzhu was examined. The results showed that the proposed framework could estimate the BCL of all businesses with promising accuracies. The results also demonstrated that the framework could distinguish the sector-specific dependence of businesses on different operation factors, and could reflect the fact that the reopening of businesses does not require all operation factors to be fully restored to the pre-disaster level. The practical implications of the findings, and the potential of the framework to be extended for predicting the BCL before earthquakes happen, are also discussed in the paper.

受地震等自然灾害影响的地区，其经济体系的中断可能会遭受巨大的损失，而这些中断通常会产生长期而深刻的影响。业务关闭时长（BCL）是指灾难后的业务完全停止运营的时期，它是灾难引起的业务中断的整体影响的关键指标。这项研究提出了一个新的分析框架，用于根据其经营因素的停工时间来对不同经济部门中企业的BCL进行建模。拟议的框架首先确定每个部门中企业的基本运营因素。然后，该框架针对每个单独的业务量化其运营因素的停机时间，并建立这些停机时间与业务的BCL之间的定量关系。进行了以绵竹县为例的研究，该县位于2008年汶川地震灾情最严重的地区，以测试该框架的性能。特别是，对绵竹市制造业和零售业企业的BCL进行了检查。结果表明，所提出的框架可以估计具有良好准确性的所有业务的BCL。结果还表明，该框架可以区分企业对不同运营因素的特定行业依赖性，并且可以反映出以下事实：企业的重新开放并不需要将所有运营因素完全恢复到灾难前的水平。研究结果的实际意义，