In the European Union, national-scope efforts to protect local ecosystem services are greatly helped by the externalization of agricultural production. Domestic environmental pressures such as pesticide residue, fertilizer leakage and waterbody overdraft would all significantly increase if European agricultural production were to be re-localized. Those increases would add additional stress on local habitats, soils and freshwater reserves. This work addresses such concerns by anticipating pressure increases associated with a near-complete re-internalization of agricultural production in the European Union. Our results could prove relevant in the event of an end of the era of cheap food imports, or when considering the plausibility of economic circularization efforts (such as suggested by the European Green Deal). Rather than produce quantitative results determined by a given set of supposedly uncontested pre-analytical assumptions, this work presents an innovative approach to scientific representation capable of accommodating several possible results driven by contradictory yet equally legitimate insights. According to our characterization of the option space, which builds on current trade profiles and assumes business as usual change in technical coefficients, a near-complete re-internalization of agricultural production by European Union member states is not environmentally feasible. In relation to social viability, the required changes in social practices would include a significant increase in the share of agricultural workers in the economy and important dietary adjustments.

在欧盟，农业生产的外部化极大地帮助了国家范围内为保护当地生态系统服务所作的努力。如果要重新定位欧洲的农业生产，那么诸如农药残留，肥料泄漏和水体透支等国内环境压力都会大大增加。这些增加将给当地的生境，土壤和淡水储量增加更多的压力。这项工作通过预期与欧盟农业生产几乎完全重新内部化有关的压力增加来解决这些问题。如果廉价食品进口时代结束，或者考虑到经济循环化努力的合理性（例如《欧洲绿色协议》的建议），我们的结果可能证明是有意义的。这项工作并未产生由一组假定的无争议的分析前假设所确定的定量结果，而是提出了一种创新的科学表示方法，能够适应由矛盾但同样合法的见解所驱动的几种可能的结果。根据我们基于当前贸易概况并假定技术系数照常变化的期权空间的特征，欧盟成员国对农业生产进行近乎完全的重新内部化在环境上是不可行的。关于社会生存能力，社会作风的必要改变将包括农业工人在经济中所占份额的显着增加和重要的饮食调整。