To calculate the environmental capacity of the estuaries of Haizhou Bay in northern Jiangsu, China in 2006 and 2016, this study employed the share ratio approach and established a tidal hydrodynamic model and a water quality diffusion model by the Delft 3D software to perform the numerical simulation. The article compared the environmental capacity in 2006 and 2016, and analyzed the changes between these years. The scenario analysis method was used to explore the influence of factors on the environmental capacity and quantify the contribution of each influencing factor. The results show that the theoretical environmental capacity was reduced by 32.718 tons/day (28.56%) from 114.571 tons/day in 2006 to 81.853 tons/day in 2016. The remaining environmental capacity was reduced by 6.955 tons/day (56.92%) from 12.219 tons/day in 2006 to 5.264 tons/day in 2016. The changes in topography and the amount of runoff into the ocean through the estuaries of Haizhou Bay between 2006 and 2016 reduced the total environmental capacity of the estuaries by an influence ratio of 0.363:0.637. The study will provide the management of the marine environment of Haizhou Bay with information to control the aggregate pollutants flowing into the ocean and support the social and economic sustainable development of Haizhou Bay.

中文翻译：

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2006-2016年苏北海州湾河口海洋环境容量变化特征及机理

为了计算2006年和2016年江苏省北部海州湾河口的环境容量，本研究采用份额法，并通过Delft 3D软件建立了潮汐水动力模型和水质扩散模型进行数值模拟。本文比较了2006年和2016年的环境容量，并分析了这几年之间的变化。情景分析法被用来探索因素对环境容量的影响，并量化每个影响因素的贡献。结果表明，理论环境容量从2006年的114.571吨/天减少了32.718吨/天（2016年为28.56％）到2016年的81.853吨/天。剩余的环境容量比上年减少了6.955吨/天（56.92％）。 2006年为12.219吨/天至5。2016年为264吨/日。2006年至2016年期间，地形变化和通过海州湾河口流入海洋的径流量减少了河口的总环境容量，影响比为0.363：0.637。该研究将为海州湾海洋环境管理提供信息，以控制流入海洋的污染物总量，并支持海州湾的社会和经济可持续发展。