Saltwater intrusion (SWI) is a global coastal problem caused by aquifer overpumping, land‐use change, and climate change impacts. Given the complex pathways that lead to SWI, coastal urban areas with poorly monitored aquifers are in need of probabilistic‐based decision support tools that can assist in better understanding and predicting SWI, while exploring effective means for sustainable aquifer management. In this study, we develop a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to account for the complex interactions of climatic and anthropogenic processes leading to SWI, while relating the severity of SWI to associated socioeconomic impacts and possible adaptation strategies. The BBN is further expanded into a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to assess the temporal progression of SWI and account for the compounding uncertainties over time. The proposed DBN is then tested at a pilot coastal aquifer underlying a highly urbanized water‐stressed metropolitan area along the Eastern Mediterranean coastline (Beirut, Lebanon). The results show that the future impacts of climate change are largely secondary when compared to the persistent water deficits. While both supply and demand management could halt the progression of salinity, the potential for reducing or reversing SWI is not evident. The indirect socioeconomic burden associated with aquifer salinity was observed to improve, albeit heterogeneously, with the application of various adaptation strategies; however, this was at a cost associated with the implementation and operation of these strategies. The proposed DBN acts as an effective decision support tool that can promote sustainable aquifer management in coastal regions through its robust representation of the main drivers of SWI and linking them to expected socioeconomic burdens and management options. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:202–220. © 2020 SETAC

中文翻译：

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动态贝叶斯网络评估咸水入侵的人为和气候驱动因素：改进管理的决策支持工具

咸水入侵（SWI）是一个全球性沿海问题，由含水层的过度泵水，土地利用变化和气候变化影响引起。考虑到导致SWI的复杂途径，含水层监测不佳的沿海城市地区需要基于概率的决策支持工具，这些工具可以帮助更好地理解和预测SWI，同时探索可持续的含水层管理的有效手段。在这项研究中，我们建立了贝叶斯信念网络（BBN），以解决导致SWI的气候和人为过程的复杂相互作用，同时将SWI的严重程度与相关的社会经济影响和可能的适应策略联系起来。BBN进一步扩展为动态贝叶斯网络（DBN），以评估SWI的时间进程并解决随时间变化的复合不确定性。然后，在地中海沿海岸线（黎巴嫩贝鲁特）的高度城市化，用水紧张的大都市区下面的试点沿海含水层中对提议的DBN进行测试。结果表明，与持续的水短缺相比，气候变化的未来影响在很大程度上是次要的。尽管供需管理都可以阻止盐分的发展，但减少或逆转SWI的潜力并不明显。观察到与含水层盐度有关的间接社会经济负担尽管通过各种适应策略的应用而得到了不同程度的改善；但是，这要付出与这些战略的实施和运行相关的费用。Integr环境评估管理2021; 17：202–220。©2020 SETAC