The future demand for data and the role of gigabit networks are central issues in the context of Next Generation Access (NGA) network roll-out. Based on a generic model, which allows to predict unconstrained future broadband demand in different regions and countries, the authors compare the results for Germany, the UK and the Flemish region, and discuss reasons for the different outcomes. The generic market potential model thereby allows to project the future demand for bandwidth from residential customers on the basis of applications and their bandwidth needs, user profiles and population structure on a household level. Despite a general trend towards an increasing need for broadband, there are clear differences. On the one hand, these point to the relevance of socio-demographic factors for broadband adoption. On the other hand, the relatively high proportion of refusals shows that there is still a need for further educational work on the part of public authorities and providers. Finally, it has to be stated, that our forecast relies on the assumption that connectivity and thus that the availability of area-wide gigabit capable broadband access does not represent a bottleneck.

中文翻译：

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2025 年居民对超高带宽宽带互联网需求的地区差异

未来对数据的需求和千兆网络的作用是下一代接入 (NGA) 网络部署背景下的核心问题。基于允许预测不同地区和国家未来不受约束的宽带需求的通用模型，作者比较了德国、英国和佛兰芒地区的结果，并讨论了不同结果的原因。因此，通用市场潜力模型允许根据应用及其带宽需求、用户概况和家庭级别的人口结构来预测住宅客户对带宽的未来需求。尽管总体趋势是对宽带的需求不断增加，但仍存在明显差异。一方面，这些表明社会人口因素与宽带采用的相关性。另一方面，拒绝的比例相对较高表明，公共当局和提供者方面仍需进一步开展教育工作。最后，必须说明的是，我们的预测依赖于以下假设：连通性以及全区域千兆宽带接入的可用性并不代表瓶颈。