A mathematical model to estimate transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is developed. A real data of confirmed cases for Ethiopia is used for parameter estimation via model fitting. Results showed that, the diseases free and endemic equilibrium points are found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable for R_o < 1 and R_o > 1 respectively. The basic reproduction number is R_o = 1.5085. Optimal control analysis also showed that, combination of optimal preventive strategies such as public health education, personal protective measures and treatment of hospitalized cases are effective to significantly decrease the number of COVID-19 cases in different compartments of the model.

建立了估算COVID-19传输动力学的数学模型。埃塞俄比亚确诊病例的真实数据用于通过模型拟合进行参数估计。结果表明，对于R _o  <1和R _o  > 1 ，疾病的自由平衡点和地方平衡点在局部和全局渐近稳定。基本再现数为R _o  = 1.5085。最佳控制分析还表明，将最佳预防策略（如公共卫生教育，个人防护措施和住院病例的治疗）相结合，可有效减少模型不同部分中COVID-19病例的数量。