In this study, a seismic risk assessment model was proposed to evaluate the seismic reliability of a water transmission network. The proposed risk assessment model involves earthquake generation and hydraulic analysis modules. To consider a comprehensive approach, the numerical simulation strategy includes probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, buried pipeline deterioration, numerical modeling of network facilities, and the interdependency between pumping plant and substation. For this purpose, a flow-based MATLAB code has been developed that enables iterative hydraulic analysis using EPANET software. For numerical simulation, the epicenter and earthquake magnitudes were determined based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, and a real water transmission network in South Korea was constructed. From the numerical results, two performance indicators (system serviceability and nodal serviceability) and four mean normal status ratios of facilities were adopted to evaluate the network performance. In addition, a component importance measure of facilities in a network system was calculated by introducing a reduction factor. The numerical results using the proposed flow-based model show that the system performance is affected by buried pipeline deterioration and network interdependency, as well as the location and magnitude of the input earthquake. It is thus concluded that the seismic risk assessment of a water transmission network should be performed using a model with a comprehensive approach.

在这项研究中，提出了一种地震风险评估模型来评估输水管网的地震可靠性。拟议的风险评估模型涉及地震发生和水力分析模块。为了考虑综合方法，数值模拟策略包括概率地震危险性分析，地下管道恶化，网络设施的数值模型以及泵站与变电站之间的相互依赖性。为此，已经开发了基于流量的MATLAB代码，该代码可使用EPANET软件进行水力迭代分析。为了进行数值模拟，根据概率地震危害分析确定了震中和地震震级，并建立了韩国的真实输水网络。从数值结果来看 使用两个性能指标（系统可服务性和节点可服务性）和四个设施的正常状态平均比来评估网络性能。另外，通过引入减少因子来计算网络系统中设施的组件重要性度量。使用所提出的基于流的模型的数值结果表明，系统性能受埋管退化和网络相互依赖性以及输入地震的位置和震级的影响。因此得出结论，输水管网的地震风险评估应使用具有综合方法的模型来进行。通过引入减少因子来计算网络系统中设施的组件重要性评估。使用所提出的基于流的模型的数值结果表明，系统性能受埋管退化和网络相互依赖性以及输入地震的位置和震级的影响。因此得出结论，输水管网的地震风险评估应使用具有综合方法的模型来进行。通过引入减少因子来计算网络系统中设施的组件重要性评估。使用所提出的基于流的模型的数值结果表明，系统性能受埋管退化和网络相互依赖性以及输入地震的位置和震级的影响。因此得出结论，输水管网的地震风险评估应使用具有综合方法的模型来进行。