This study examined relationships between temperature, precipitation, geo-topography, and the spring phenology of Fuji and Hongro apple cultivars along spatial gradients across South Korea. Phenology data was gathered from 2011 to 2014 in 42 uniformly managed research orchards which span a range in climate, latitude, and elevation. We used linear models and spatially explicit forecasts to study apple phenology under climate change scenarios. Given dry winters and complex terrain in South Korea, we hypothesized that, in addition to temperature, precipitation and geo-topographic factors influence apple phenology. We also expected responses to climate variation to be similar between (spatial) and within (temporal) orchards, given the controlled conditions and the use of apple clones in this study. With other factors held constant, phenological sensitivity ranged from − 3.2 to − 3.4 days °C −1 for air temperature and − 0.5 to − 0.6 days cm −1 for March precipitation in a combined model. When modeled without temperature, phenology changed by up to 10 days over the full range in March precipitation. Spring temperatures and precipitation in March had very little cross-correlation ( r < 0.05), suggesting these patterns are independent; however, in a combined model including temperature, predicted changes in precipitation over the next 80 years have only a small impact on future apple phenology. Combining the best models with climate forecasts for South Korea, spring phenology continues to occur earlier over the next 80 years, mostly due to warming temperatures but with strong variation between regions. This suggests regionally specific climate change adaptation strategies are needed for future apple production in South Korea.

中文翻译：

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韩国各地的苹果物候出现较早，气温较高，降水量增加

本研究调查了温度、降水、地理地形和富士和红露苹果品种在整个韩国空间梯度上的春季物候之间的关系。物候数据是从 2011 年到 2014 年在 42 个统一管理的研究果园中收集的，这些果园跨越了不同的气候、纬度和海拔高度。我们使用线性模型和空间显性预测来研究气候变化情景下的苹果物候学。鉴于韩国冬季干燥且地形复杂，我们假设除温度外，降水和地理地形因素也会影响苹果的物候。鉴于本研究中的受控条件和苹果克隆的使用，我们还预计（空间）果园和（时间）果园内对气候变化的反应相似。在其他因素不变的情况下，在组合模型中，物候敏感性范围为 - 3.2 至 - 3.4 天 °C -1 的气温和 - 0.5 至 - 0.6 天 cm -1 的三月降水。在没有温度的情况下建模时，物候在 3 月降水的整个范围内最多变化 10 天。3 月份春季气温和降水量几乎没有相关性（r < 0.05），表明这些模式是独立的；然而，在包括温度的组合模型中，未来 80 年预测的降水变化对未来苹果物候的影响很小。将最好的模型与韩国的气候预测相结合，在接下来的 80 年里，春季物候继续发生得更早，这主要是由于气温升高，但地区之间的差异很大。