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Contribution of Global Warming and Atmospheric Circulation to the Hottest Spring in Eastern China in 2018
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences ( IF 6.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-09 , DOI: 10.1007/s00376-020-0088-5 Chunhui Lu , Ying Sun , Nikolaos Christidis , Peter A. Stott
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences ( IF 6.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-09 , DOI: 10.1007/s00376-020-0088-5 Chunhui Lu , Ying Sun , Nikolaos Christidis , Peter A. Stott
The spring of 2018 was the hottest on record since 1951 over eastern China based on station observations, being 2.5°C higher than the 1961–90 mean and with more than 900 stations reaching the record spring mean temperature. This event exerted serious impacts in the region on agriculture, plant phenology, electricity transmission systems, and human health. In this paper, the contributions of human-induced climate change and anomalous anticyclonic circulation to this event are investigated using the newly homogenized observations and updated Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme events, as well as CanESM2 (Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model) simulations. Results indicate that both anthropogenic influences and anomalous anticyclonic circulation played significant roles in increasing the probability of the 2018 hottest spring. Quantitative estimates of the probability ratio show that anthropogenic forcing may have increased the chance of this event by ten-fold, while the anomalous circulation increased it by approximately two-fold. The persistent anomalous anticyclonic circulation located on the north side of China blocked the air with lower temperature from high latitudes into eastern China. Without anthropogenic forcing or without the anomalous circulation in northern China, the occurrence probability of the extreme warm spring is significantly reduced. 根据气象站的观测结果,2018年春季是1951年以来中国东部地区有记录以来最热的春季,比1961-90年的平均温度高出2.5°C,并且有900多个气象站达到了春季历史最高温纪录。这一极端高温事件对华东地区的农业、植物生长、电力传输系统和人类健康都产生了重要的影响。本文使用最新的均一化观测资料和更新后的英国气象局Hadley研究中心极端事件归因系统,以及第二代加拿大地球系统模式,研究了人类活动引起的全球变暖和局地的反气旋异常环流对这一极端高温事件发生概率的量化影响。概率比的定量评估表明:人类活动引起的气候变化可以使这一极端高温事件的发生概率增加十倍,而异常的局地反气旋环流使得这一事件的发生概率增加了约两倍。位于中国北部地区的持续性反气旋环流阻止了高纬地区的低气温空气进入中国东部地区。敏感性实验的结果进一步表明,全球增暖和环流异常对2018年春季中国东部地区的这一极端高温事件都有着非常重要的影响,缺少其中任何一个因素,这一极端事件的发生概率都会大大降低。
更新日期：2020-10-09
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