Climbing cacti with edible fruits have been proposed as new dryland fruit crops because their high water-use efficiency reduces water requirement. One lineage of climbers in the cactus family, the Hylocereus group of Selenicereus, includes several species that produce edible fruits and is currently cultivated around the world. Fruits are known as pitahayas, pitayas or dragon fruit. Here, by means of ecological niche-based modelling and analytical hierarchical modelling, the optimal areas for cultivating the three main species of this group in Mesoamerica – Selenicereus costaricensis, Selenicereus ocamponis and Selenicereus undatus – are identified. Data on distribution, physiological requirement and host preferences are taken into account to carry out ecological modelling for current and future scenarios of climate and determine its impact on cultivation. Two MIROC climatic future models, one optimistic (ssp216) and a pessimistic (ssp585) were selected and 554 records from Mexico and Central America were gathered. For all three species, temperature and precipitation seasonality, and solar radiation were the most significant variables in the niche modelling. In addition, for S. undatus the most important hosts, three species of mesquite legume trees were significant to forecast suitable areas for planting. Large areas on the Pacific side from Sinaloa to Costa Rica were predicted as favourable for cultivating the studied three species. Future scenarios of climate change predicted increase of suitable areas for two species and in particular for S. undatus the increment was the largest. Therefore, dragon fruits are corroborated as promising fruits in view of climate change.

中文翻译：

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中美洲火龙果种植的最佳区域和气候变化影响

已提出将可食用水果攀爬仙人掌作为新的旱地水果作物，因为它们的高水分利用效率降低了对水的需求。仙人掌家族中的一种攀登者，火龙果组硒属，包括几种生产可食用水果的物种，目前在世界各地种植。水果被称为火龙果、火龙果或火龙果。在这里，通过基于生态位的建模和分析层次建模，在中美洲培育该组三个主要物种的最佳区域 -紫檀,牛舌草和鲢鱼– 被识别。考虑到分布、生理需求和宿主偏好的数据，对当前和未来的气候情景进行生态建模，并确定其对种植的影响。选择了两个 MIROC 气候未来模型，一个乐观（ssp216）和一个悲观（ssp585），收集了来自墨西哥和中美洲的 554 条记录。对于所有三个物种，温度和降水季节性以及太阳辐射是生态位建模中最重要的变量。此外，对于S. undatus作为最重要的宿主，三种豆科植物对预测适宜种植区域具有重要意义。从锡那罗亚州到哥斯达黎加，太平洋一侧的大片区域被预测为有利于培育所研究的三个物种。未来气候变化情景预测两种物种的适宜面积增加，特别是S. undatus增幅最大。因此，鉴于气候变化，火龙果被证实为有前途的水果。