Increasing impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic disturbances on natural ecosystems are leading to population declines or extinctions of many species worldwide. In Australia, recent climatic change has caused population declines in some native fauna. The projected increase in mean annual temperature by up to 4°C by the end of the 21st century is expected to exacerbate these trends. The greater glider (Petauroides volans), Australia’s largest gliding marsupial, is widely distributed along the eastern coast, but has recently experienced drastic declines in population numbers. Its association with hollow‐bearing trees, used for nesting, has made it an important species for the conservation of old‐growth forest ecosystems. Fires and timber harvesting have been identified as threats to the species. Greater gliders have disappeared however from areas that have experienced neither raising questions about the role of other factors in their decline. A unique physiology and strict Eucalyptus diet make them vulnerable to high temperatures and low water availability. As such, climatic conditions may drive habitat selection and recent climatic trends may be contributing to observed population declines. Using presence:absence data from across its distribution in Victoria, coupled with high spatial and temporal resolution climatic data and machine‐learning modeling, we tested the influence of climatic, topographic, edaphic, biotic, and disturbance variables on greater glider occupancy and habitat suitability. We found that climatic variables, particularly those related to aridity and extreme weather conditions, such as number of nights warmer than 20°C, were highly significant predictors of greater glider occurrence. Climatic conditions associated with habitat suitability have changed over time, with increasing aridity across much of its southeastern distribution. These changes in climate are closely aligned with observed population declines across this region. At higher elevation, some areas where the greater glider is observed at high densities, conditions have become wetter, which is improving habitat quality. These areas are of growing significance to greater glider conservation as they will become increasingly important as climatic refugia in the coming decades. Protecting these areas of habitat will be critical for facilitating the conservation of greater gliders as the broader landscape becomes less hospitable under future climatic change.

中文翻译：

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气候变化在其生理极限下驱使夜间有树有袋动物的栖息地收缩

气候变化和人为干扰对自然生态系统的影响越来越大，这导致世界范围内许多物种的种群减少或灭绝。在澳大利亚，最近的气候变化导致某些本地动物种群减少。预计到21世纪末，年平均气温将上升4°C，这将加剧这些趋势。更大的滑翔机（Petauroides volans）是澳大利亚最大的滑行有袋动物，在东部沿海广泛分布，但最近人口急剧下降。它与用于筑巢的空心树木结合在一起，使其成为保护古老森林生态系统的重要物种。火灾和木材砍伐已被确认为对该物种的威胁。然而，更大的滑翔机已经从没有经历过对其他因素在其下降中的作用提出质疑的地区消失了。独特的生理和严格的桉树饮食使他们容易受到高温和低水的利用。因此，气候条件可能会推动栖息地的选择，而最近的气候趋势可能会导致观测到的人口下降。利用存在的数据：维多利亚州各地分布的缺失数据，以及高时空分辨率的气候数据和机器学习模型，我们测试了气候，地形，水文，生物和干扰变量对更大的滑翔机占用和栖息地适应性的影响。我们发现气候变量，特别是与干旱和极端天气条件相关的变量，例如晚于20°C的夜晚数，是滑翔机发生率更高的高度重要的预测因子。随着时间的流逝，与栖息地适宜性相关的气候条件发生了变化，东南大部分地区干旱加剧。这些气候变化与该地区观察到的人口下降密切相关。在高海拔地区，在高密度下观察到更大滑翔机的某些地区，条件变得更湿，这改善了栖息地质量。这些区域对于更大的滑翔机保护具有越来越重要的意义，因为在未来几十年中，它们将随着气候庇护而变得越来越重要。保护这些栖息地区域对于促进更大滑翔机的养护至关重要，因为在未来的气候变化下，更广阔的景观变得不再那么好客了。在高密度观察到较大滑翔机的某些地区，条件变得更湿，这改善了栖息地质量。这些区域对于更大的滑翔机保护具有越来越重要的意义，因为在未来几十年中，它们将随着气候庇护而变得越来越重要。保护这些栖息地区域对于促进更大滑翔机的养护至关重要，因为在未来的气候变化下，更广阔的景观变得不再那么好客了。在高密度观察到较大滑翔机的某些地区，条件变得更湿，这改善了栖息地质量。这些区域对于更大的滑翔机保护具有越来越重要的意义，因为在未来几十年中，它们将随着气候庇护而变得越来越重要。保护这些栖息地区域对于促进更大滑翔机的养护至关重要，因为在未来的气候变化下，更广阔的景观变得不再那么好客了。