With the significant improvements in drone technology and the popularization of drones among their hobbyists, the incidents of drones intruding airports have resulted in a large number of flight delays and temporary closure of runways. To minimize the interference of drones on normal operations in the airports, a collision probability evaluation scheme based on collision-course trajectories modeling is proposed in this work. Firstly, a trajectory planning model of drones intruding restricted airspace is derived based on a given trajectory of the commercial aircraft (CA) and the collision-course scenario of the drone. Subsequently, according to the trajectories of the drone and CA, a probabilistic model based on the stochastic kinematic model is developed to implement the collision risk evaluation. The proposed method is first comparatively demonstrated with the Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation and several special cases with known drone’s trajectories. Subsequently, the cases covering different drone’s initial positions, positions updates, and different collision zones are simulated and analyzed using the proposed collision-course based model. The simulation results show that the established model can be employed to evaluate the collision probability, even if the trajectory information of the intruding drone is limited.

随着无人机技术的显着改进以及无人机在其业余爱好者中的普及，无人机入侵机场的事件导致大量航班延误和跑道暂时关闭。为了最大程度地降低无人机对机场正常运行的干扰，本文提出了一种基于碰撞过程轨迹建模的碰撞概率评估方案。首先，根据民航飞机的给定轨迹和无人机的碰撞航向，推导了无人机进入受限空域的轨迹规划模型。随后，根据无人机和CA的轨迹，建立了基于随机运动学模型的概率模型来进行碰撞风险评估。首先通过蒙特卡洛（MC）仿真以及具有已知无人机轨迹的几种特殊情况对所提出的方法进行了比较证明。随后，使用建议的基于碰撞过程的模型对覆盖不同无人机初始位置，位置更新和不同碰撞区域的情况进行了仿真和分析。仿真结果表明，即使入侵无人机的飞行轨迹信息有限，所建立的模型也可以用于评估碰撞概率。