Abstract Fruit trees stop their growth over the coldest period of the year to avoid damage. To resume their growth and for successful fruit production, they need to accumulate winter chill. It is expected that global warming will diminish winter chill availability with potentially negative impacts on the viability and yield of these crops. The objective of this study was to assess the viability of seven tree crops among the most relevant in peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands. For this purpose, chilling requirements were gathered from the literature to define a requirement range for each tree crop encompassing most of the varieties used in Spain. Then the bias-adjusted outputs of an ensemble of 10 regional climate models under the two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, were used to feed a chilling model for calculating chill accumulation. The ensemble's outcome agreement index was applied to each combination of chill requirement and climate ensemble to assess crop viability. This was done by testing the hypothesis that the winter chill accumulation will be greater than the safe winter chill for the 2021–2050 (near future) and 2071–2100 (far future) periods and for both RCPs. A future reduction in the safe winter chill areas is projected with high agreement in climate projections across peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands independently of the RCP or future period. The crops studied would be viable in the near future period as long as varieties with low chilling requirements are used. These varieties, however, would not be adequate in the far future in some currently highly productive regions, where the situation would become more severe, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. In these cases, adaptation would be possible by shifting the crop to adjacent areas together with careful variety selection in terms of chilling requirements. The results indicate that the RCP8.5 scenario in the far future has an especially negative impact on the crops analysed, calling for resolute mitigation measures to guarantee tree crop production and food security. Recommendations for adaptation, with low uncertainty regarding climate projections, were included here, using actual tree varieties, thereby facilitating interpretation and on-field application for farmers and agricultural technicians.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下西班牙温带果树品种的生存能力根据冷量积累

摘要 果树在一年中最冷的时期停止生长，以避免受到损害。为了恢复它们的生长和成功的水果生产，它们需要积累冬天的寒冷。预计全球变暖将减少冬季寒冷的可用性，并对这些作物的生存能力和产量产生潜在的负面影响。本研究的目的是评估西班牙半岛和巴利阿里群岛最相关的七种树木作物的生存能力。为此，从文献中收集了冷却要求，以定义涵盖西班牙使用的大多数品种的每种树木作物的要求范围。然后是 10 个区域气候模型在两个代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5 下的偏差调整输出，用于提供冷却模型以计算冷却积累。集合的结果一致性指数应用于寒冷需求和气候集合的每个组合，以评估作物活力。这是通过测试以下假设来完成的：冬季寒冷积累将大于 2021-2050（近期）和 2071-2100（远未来）时期以及两个 RCP 的安全冬季寒冷。与 RCP 或未来时期无关的西班牙半岛和巴利阿里群岛的气候预测高度一致，预计未来安全冬季寒冷地区将减少。只要使用低温需求低的品种，所研究的作物将在不久的将来可行。然而，这些品种在不久的将来在一些目前高产的地区是不够的，情况会变得更加严重，尤其是在 RCP8.5 情景下。在这些情况下，可以通过将作物转移到邻近地区并根据冷藏要求仔细选择品种来进行适应。结果表明，在遥远的未来，RCP8.5 情景对所分析的作物具有特别不利的影响，需要采取坚决的缓解措施，以保证树木作物的生产和粮食安全。气候预测不确定性较低的适应建议包括在此处，使用实际树木品种，从而促进农民和农业技术人员的解释和现场应用。通过将作物转移到邻近地区并根据冷藏要求仔细选择品种，可以进行适应。结果表明，在遥远的未来，RCP8.5 情景对所分析的作物具有特别负面的影响，需要采取坚决的缓解措施，以保证树木作物生产和粮食安全。气候预测不确定性较低的适应建议包括在此处，使用实际树木品种，从而促进农民和农业技术人员的解释和现场应用。通过将作物转移到邻近地区并根据冷藏要求仔细选择品种，可以进行适应。结果表明，在遥远的未来，RCP8.5 情景对所分析的作物具有特别不利的影响，需要采取坚决的缓解措施，以保证树木作物的生产和粮食安全。气候预测不确定性较低的适应建议包括在此处，使用实际树木品种，从而促进农民和农业技术人员的解释和现场应用。呼吁采取坚决的缓解措施，以保证树木作物生产和粮食安全。气候预测不确定性较低的适应建议包括在此处，使用实际树木品种，从而促进农民和农业技术人员的解释和现场应用。呼吁采取坚决的缓解措施，以保证树木作物生产和粮食安全。气候预测不确定性较低的适应建议包括在此处，使用实际树木品种，从而促进农民和农业技术人员的解释和现场应用。