Ecosystems continuously adapt to interacting environmental drivers that change over time. Consequently, the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystem may presently still be affected by past anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., deforestation) and other environmental changes (e.g., climate change). However, even though such so‐called “legacy effects” are implicitly included in many carbon cycle modeling studies, they are typically not explicitly quantified and therefore scientists might not be aware of their long‐term importance. Here, we use the ecosystem model LPJ‐GUESS to quantify legacy effects for the 21st century and the respective contributions of the following environmental drivers: climate change, CO₂ fertilization, land use change, wood harvest, nitrogen deposition, and nitrogen fertilization. According to our simulations, the combined legacy effects of historical (1850–2015) environmental changes result in a land carbon uptake of +126 Gt C over the future (2015–2099) period. This by far exceeds the impacts of future environmental changes (range −53 Gt C to +16 Gt C for three scenarios) and is comparable in magnitude to historical carbon losses (−154 Gt C). Legacy effects can mainly be attributed to ecosystems still adapting to historical increases in atmospheric CO₂ (+65 Gt C) and nitrogen deposition (+33 Gt C), but long‐term vegetation regrowth following agricultural abandonment (+8 Gt C) and wood harvest (+19 Gt C) also play a role. The response of the biosphere to historical environmental changes dominates future terrestrial carbon cycling at least until midcentury. Legacy effects persist many decades after environmental changes occurred and need to be considered when interpreting changes and estimating terrestrial carbon uptake potentials.

中文翻译：

---

历史环境变化带来的遗留影响将主导未来的陆地碳吸收

生态系统不断适应不断变化的相互作用的环境驱动因素。因此，陆地生态系统的碳平衡目前仍可能受到过去的人为干扰（例如森林砍伐）和其他环境变化（例如气候变化）的影响。但是，即使在许多碳循环建模研究中隐含了这种所谓的“遗留效应”，通常也没有对其进行明确量化，因此科学家们可能不会意识到其长期重要性。在这里，我们使用生态系统模型LPJ‐GUESS来量化21世纪的遗留影响以及以下环境驱动因素的各自贡献：气候变化，CO ₂施肥，土地利用变化，木材采伐，氮沉降和氮肥。根据我们的模拟，历史（1850–2015）环境变化的综合遗留效应导致未来（2015–2099）期间土地碳吸收+126 GtC。到目前为止，这已经超过了未来环境变化的影响（在三种情况下范围为-53 Gt C至+16 Gt C），并且其大小可与历史碳损失（-154 Gt C）相提并论。遗留效应主要归因于生态系统仍然适应大气中CO _2的历史增长（+65 Gt C）和氮沉降（+33 Gt C），但是农业弃置（+8 Gt C）和木材采伐（+19 Gt C）后的长期植被再生也起作用。生物圈对历史环境变化的反应至少在本世纪中叶之前主导着未来的陆地碳循环。在环境变化发生后数十年，传统影响仍然存在，在解释变化和估算陆地碳吸收潜力时需要考虑到传统影响。