Soil organic carbon (SOC) depletion is a threat for the present and future agricultural production in Ethiopia. Hence, investigation of the influence of land management and climate change on SOC is required to facilitate climate change mitigation practices. For this study, croplands of the Atsela‐Sesat and Ayba sites from the Alaje district and the Tsigea site from the Raya Azebo district in northern Ethiopia were selected. The RothC model was used to predict future SOC trends and evaluate impacts of climate and land‐management change scenarios on SOC stocks. The RothC model was run for two scenarios, (i) business as usual (scenario 1) and (ii) improved crop residue and manure management (scenario 2), to predict SOC stock changes in the cropland under current and future climate change. The current SOC content and SOC stock of the croplands are 14.4 g kg⁻¹ and 26.7 t ha⁻¹ in Atsela‐Sesat, 14.8 g kg⁻¹ and 27.9 t ha⁻¹ in Ayba and 14.8 g kg⁻¹ and 26.9 t ha⁻¹ in Tsigea, respectively. The RothC model‐predicted SOC accumulation for this century in scenario 1 was 0.26 t C ha⁻¹ in Alaje and 0.18 t C ha⁻¹ in Raya Azebo, whereas in scenario 2 it was 0.52 t C ha⁻¹ in Alaje and 0.36 t C ha⁻¹ in Raya Azebo. Although the predicted SOC accumulation in scenario 2 is higher than in scenario 1 and the baseline scenario, it still has a decreasing trend due to climate change. However, the organic carbon return into the soil is generally small and thus it will not be possible to improve soil productivity and attain food security. Therefore, future soil fertility strategies need to include both organic and inorganic fertilizer application. These findings will help to assist land managers to make informed decisions during land‐management practices to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

中文翻译：

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埃塞俄比亚北部气候和土地管理变化情景下的土壤有机碳动态时空建模

土壤有机碳的消耗对埃塞俄比亚目前和未来的农业生产构成威胁。因此，需要调查土地管理和气候变化对SOC的影响，以促进减缓气候变化的做法。在本研究中，选择了埃塞俄比亚北部Alaje地区的Atsela-Sesat和Ayba地点以及Tsigea地点的农田（位于埃塞俄比亚北部）。RothC模型用于预测未来的SOC趋势，并评估气候和土地管理变化情景对SOC存量的影响。RothC模型在两种情况下运行：（i）照常营业（情况1）和（ii）改善作物残茬和粪便管理（情况2），以预测当前和未来气候变化下农田的SOC存量变化。当前农田的SOC含量和SOC存量为14。Atsela-Sesat的^-1和26.7 t ha ^-1，Ayba的分别为14.8 g kg ^-1和27.9 t ha ^-1，Tsigea的分别为14.8 g kg ^-1和26.9 t ha ^-1。RothC模型预测的情景1中本世纪的SOC累积在阿拉耶为0.26 t C ha ^-1，在拉亚·阿泽博为0.18 t C ha ^-1，而在情景2中，阿拉吉和0.51 t C ha ^-1在0.32 t C ha ^-1 ha ^-1在拉雅阿泽伯（Raya Azebo）。尽管方案2中的SOC累积预测值高于方案1和基准方案中的SOC累积值，但由于气候变化，SOC仍呈下降趋势。但是，返回土壤的有机碳通常很小，因此不可能提高土壤生产力和实现粮食安全。因此，未来的土壤肥力策略需要同时包括有机肥和无机肥的施用。这些发现将有助于土地管理人员在土地管理实践中做出明智的决定，以减轻气候变化的影响。