Abstract Prediction of multi-hazard slope stability events requires an informed and judicious choice of the possible scenarios. An incorrect definition of landslide conditions in terms of expected failure volume, material behavior, or boundary conditions can lead to inaccurate predictions and, in turn, to wrong engineering and risk management decisions. Reduced-scale experiments carried out two years before the Vajont disaster were carried out with a material not representative of the actual rockslide behavior and failed in not considering the simultaneous failure of the whole landslide body. Based on these inappropriate assumptions, the physical models led to wrong estimates of the safety operational level for the Vajont reservoir. This work uses the Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM) to analyze the implications of the wrong hypotheses considered in the pre-event experiments, simulating numerically the Vajont disaster for different sliding volumes and material properties. The use of the PFEM for the accurate assessment of the consequences of landslides impinging in water reservoirs has been already validated in a companion paper. In this work, we demonstrate the capabilities of a robust and reliable numerical modeling approach for the simulation of different scenarios, assessing what could have been a safe operational reservoir level in the case of a landslide generated impulse wave. The three-dimensional analyses were run with a high mesh resolution and demonstrate the suitability and robustness of the PFEM model for large-scale landslide and multi-hazard events simulation.

中文翻译：

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Vajont 灾难的 3D 模拟。第 2 部分：多故障场景

摘要 多灾害边坡稳定性事件的预测需要对可能的情景进行知情和明智的选择。根据预期的故障体积、材料行为或边界条件对滑坡条件的错误定义可能导致预测不准确，进而导致错误的工程和风险管理决策。在 Vajont 灾难发生前两年进行的缩小规模试验使用的材料不能代表实际的滑坡行为，并且未能考虑整个滑坡体的同时破坏。基于这些不恰当的假设，物理模型导致对 Vajont 水库安全运行水平的错误估计。这项工作使用粒子有限元方法 (PFEM) 来分析事件前实验中考虑的错误假设的影响，对不同滑动体积和材料特性的 Vajont 灾难进行数值模拟。PFEM 用于准确评估滑坡撞击水库的后果已在配套论文中得到验证。在这项工作中，我们展示了用于模拟不同场景的稳健可靠的数值建模方法的能力，评估在滑坡产生脉冲波的情况下可能是安全的操作水库水位。