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Energy-output nexus in Bangladesh: A two-sector model analysis
Energy Strategy Reviews ( IF 7.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100566
Sakib Bin Amin , Foqoruddin Al Kabir , Farhan Khan

The relationship between energy and output is one of the key issues in economic literature. Existing empirical studies have mainly used the neoclassical one-sector aggregate production function to examine the energy-output nexus and revealed inconclusive results. To address this issue, in this paper, we develop a two-sector model differentiating the energy sector from the conventional production sector to study the energy-output linkage for the Bangladesh economy. Using the annual data from 1985 to 2018, we conduct several unit root tests and reveal that our variables are stationary at their first difference. We further use the Johansen-Juselius cointegration and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds tests and find that the variables are cointegrated in the long-run. By using three robust estimators (Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), and Dynamic ARDL), we reveal that a 1% increase in energy can increase the output by 0.06–0.10% in the long-run. We also run the Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to check the long-run and short-run causality. Our results find a unidirectional causality running from energy to output in the long-run but not in the short-run. We recommend that a reliable supply of energy needs to be ensured for future sustainable development in Bangladesh.



中文翻译:

孟加拉国的能源输出关系:两部门模型分析

能源与产出之间的关系是经济学文献中的关键问题之一。现有的经验研究主要使用新古典的一部门总量生产函数来检验能源输出关系,并揭示出不确定的结果。为了解决这个问题,在本文中,我们建立了一个两部门模型,将能源部门与常规生产部门区分开来研究孟加拉国经济的能源输出联系。使用1985年至2018年的年度数据,我们进行了几次单位根检验,并揭示出我们的变量在它们的第一个差异处是平稳的。我们进一步使用Johansen-Juselius协整和自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验,发现变量在长期内是协整的。通过使用三个鲁棒的估计器(动态最小二乘(DOLS),完全修改的OLS(FMOLS)和动态ARDL),我们发现,从长远来看,能量增加1%可以使输出增加0.06-0.10%。我们还运行Granger因果关系检验和矢量错误校正模型(VECM),以检查长期和短期因果关系。我们的结果发现,从长期来看,从能量到输出的单向因果关系在短期内并非如此。我们建议为孟加拉国未来的可持续发展确保可靠的能源供应。我们的结果发现,从长期来看,从能量到输出的单向因果关系在短期内并非如此。我们建议为孟加拉国未来的可持续发展确保可靠的能源供应。我们的结果发现,从长期来看,从能量到输出的单向因果关系在短期内并非如此。我们建议为孟加拉国未来的可持续发展确保可靠的能源供应。

更新日期:2020-10-07
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