Abstract Fertility is a key process shaping long-term population dynamics. Distinctive fertility trends have characterized demographic transitions, exhibiting sequential periods of spatial convergence and divergence. This descriptive study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Crude Birth Rate (CBR) at different geographical scales in Italy between 2002 and 2018. Descriptive statistics of the TFR and CBR values across geographical scales were computed and the associated maps were prepared for the most detailed spatial levels available; specifically, down to the municipality level. Spatial analysis at the provincial and municipality level was based on both global and local Moran's indexes. Southern Italy, a mostly disadvantaged region, was characterized by relatively stable fertility patterns; fertility then decreased following an opposite trend with respect to economic conditions. The reverse relationship was observed in Northern Italy. As such, economic expansion and recession impacted fertility more intensively in Northern Italy.

中文翻译：

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低生育率国家总生育率和粗出生率的空间变异性：2002-2018 年意大利区域和地方尺度异质性的模式和趋势

摘要 生育率是塑造长期人口动态的关键过程。独特的生育趋势以人口转变为特征，表现出连续的空间收敛和发散时期。这项描述性研究调查了 2002 年至 2018 年意大利不同地理尺度的总生育率 (TFR) 和粗出生率 (CBR) 的时空演变。为可用的最详细的空间级别做好准备；具体来说，下至市级。省市层面的空间分析基于全球和本地 Moran 指数。意大利南部是一个主要处于不利地位的地区，其特点是生育率相对稳定；生育率随后随着经济状况的相反趋势而下降。在意大利北部观察到相反的关系。因此，经济扩张和衰退更严重地影响了意大利北部的生育率。