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Environmental impact of Karkheh Dam in the southern part of Iran on groundwater quality by intervention and trend analysis
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-07 , DOI: 10.1007/s10661-020-08629-z
Mohammad Sakizadeh , Lloyd H. C. Chua

The main objective of this research was to investigate the impact of the construction of Karkheh Dam in 2001 (referred to as the intervention time), on groundwater quality. The time series of total dissolved solids (TDS) and other water quality data including potassium (K+), sodium (Na+), magnesium (Mg2+), calcium (Ca2+), bicarbonate (HCO3), sulfate (SO42−), and chloride (Cl) for the period between 1996 and 2012 were analyzed. The magnitude of the trend by Sen’s slope estimator for HCO3, SO42−, and TDS was 0.005, − 0.02 and − 3.04, where a decline expected for SO42− and TDS, whereas for HCO3, an increase was expected. According to the Pettitt’s test, the mean of TDS decreased from 2306.9 mg/l between 1996 and 2002 to 797.2 mg/l between 2002 and 2012. During this time, the standard deviation of TDS declined from 2187.1 to 132.0 mg/l. The results of change point detection by the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm were consistent with that of Pettitt’s test providing confirmation that a change point in Ca2+, Mg2+, SO42−, and TDS time series data occurred in 2002.The findings from intervention analysis using the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) technique showed that TDS concentration during the post-intervention period had an average value of 1127 mg/l compared with 1972 mg/l, before the dam construction. The time series of TDS demonstrated a decrease of about 43% following the intervention time.



中文翻译:

伊朗南部卡尔赫水坝对环境质量的干预和趋势分析

这项研究的主要目的是调查2001年Karkheh大坝的建设对地下水水质的影响(称为干预时间)。时间序列的总溶解固体(TDS)和其他水质数据,包括钾(K的+),钠(Na +),镁(Mg 2+),钙(Ca 2+),碳酸氢根(HCO 3 - ),硫酸(SO 4 2- ),和氯化(氯-)1996年和2012年之间的时间段进行分析。由森的斜率估计对HCO趋势的幅度3 -,SO 4 2-和TDS为0.005, - 0.02和- 3.04,其中预期SO下降4 2-和TDS,而对于HCO 3 - ,增加了预期。根据Pettitt的测试,TDS的平均值从1996年至2002年的2306.9 mg / l降至2002年至2012年的797.2 mg / l。在此期间,TDS的标准偏差从2187.1毫克/升降低至132.0毫克/升。修剪精确线性时间(PELT)算法检测到的变化点与Pettitt检验的结果一致,从而证实了Ca 2 +,Mg 2 +,SO 4 2-的变化点和TDS时间序列数据发生在2002年。使用贝叶斯结构时间序列(BSTS)技术进行干预分析的结果表明,干预后阶段的TDS浓度平均值为1127 mg / l,而1972 mg / l ,在大坝建设之前。TDS的时间序列表明,干预时间减少了约43%。

更新日期:2020-10-07
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