In South Australia, discrete populations of bottlenose dolphins inhabit two large gulfs, where key threats and population estimates have been identified. Climate change, habitat disturbance (shipping and noise pollution), fishery interactions and epizootic events have been identified as the key threats facing these populations. The Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCoD) framework has been developed to understand how disturbances can influence population dynamics. We used population estimates combined with population specific bioenergetics models to undertake a partial PCoD assessment, comparing how the two populations respond to the identified regional threats. Populations were modeled over a 5 year period looking at the influence of each disturbance separately. As expected, the most extreme epizootic and climate change disturbance scenarios with high frequency and intensity had the biggest influence on population trends. However, the magnitude of the effect differed by population, with Spencer Gulf showing a 43% and Gulf St Vincent a 23% decline under high frequency and high impact epizootic scenarios. Epizootic events were seen to have the strongest influence on population trends and reproductive parameters for both populations, followed by climate change. PCoD modeling provides insights into how disturbances may affect different populations and informs management on how to mitigate potential effects while there is still time to act.

中文翻译：

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极端干扰的极端影响：评估特定人群反应的模拟方法

在南澳大利亚，宽吻海豚的离散种群栖息在两个大海湾，那里已经确定了主要威胁和种群估计数。气候变化、栖息地干扰（航运和噪音污染）、渔业相互作用和动物流行事件已被确定为这些种群面临的主要威胁。已经开发了人口扰动后果 (PCoD) 框架来了解扰动如何影响人口动态。我们使用人口估计与特定于人口的生物能量学模型相结合进行部分 PCoD 评估，比较两个人口如何应对已确定的区域威胁。对 5 年期间的人口进行建模，分别观察每个干扰的影响。正如预期的那样，频率和强度最高的最极端的流行病和气候变化干扰情景对人口趋势的影响最大。然而，影响的程度因人口而异，在高频和高影响的动物流行情景下，斯宾塞湾下降了 43%，圣文森特湾下降了 23%。动物流行事件被认为对两个种群的种群趋势和生殖参数影响最大，其次是气候变化。PCoD 建模提供了有关干扰如何影响不同人群的见解，并告知管理层如何在仍有时间采取行动的同时减轻潜在影响。在高频和高影响的动物流行情景下，斯宾塞湾下降了 43%，圣文森特湾下降了 23%。动物流行事件被认为对两个种群的种群趋势和生殖参数影响最大，其次是气候变化。PCoD 建模提供了有关干扰如何影响不同人群的见解，并告知管理层如何在仍有时间采取行动的同时减轻潜在影响。在高频和高影响的动物流行情景下，斯宾塞湾下降了 43%，圣文森特湾下降了 23%。动物流行事件被认为对两个种群的种群趋势和生殖参数影响最大，其次是气候变化。PCoD 建模提供了有关干扰如何影响不同人群的见解，并告知管理层如何在仍有时间采取行动的同时减轻潜在影响。