Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, responding to the linked variations in groundwater pumping and grain production. On a state level, this approach predicted when groundwater withdrawal and grain production peaked and the lag between them. The lags increased with the adoption of efficient irrigation practices and higher recharge rates. Results indicate that, in Texas, withdrawals peaked in 1966, followed by a peak in grain production 9 y later. After better irrigation technologies were adopted, the lag increased to 15 y from 1997 to 2012. In Kansas, where these technologies were employed concurrently with the rise of irrigated grain production, this lag was predicted to be 24 y starting in 1994. In Nebraska, grain production is projected to continue rising through 2050 because of high recharge rates. While Texas and Nebraska had equal irrigated output in 1975, by 2050, it is projected that Nebraska will have almost 10 times the groundwater-based production of Texas.

灌溉农业占全球粮食总产量的40％。在美国每年生产超过5000万吨谷物的高原地区，多达90％的灌溉来自地下水资源，包括Ogallala含水层。在高平原部分地区，地下水资源正以极快的速度耗尽，以至于它们被认为是不可再生的，从而损害了粮食安全。当地下水变得稀缺时，地下水的抽取量达到峰值，从而导致农作物产量的随后峰值。有限自然资源枯竭的先前描述已利用Hubbert曲线。通过结合地下水泵送，补给和农作物生产的动态，出现了类似哈伯特的曲线，从而响应了地下水泵送和谷物生产的相关变化。在州一级，这种方法可以预测地下水开采量和谷物产量何时达到峰值以及两者之间的滞后时间。随着采取有效的灌溉措施和提高补给率，滞后现象加剧。结果表明，得克萨斯州的提款量在1966年达到顶峰，随后9年后谷物产量达到顶峰。在采用更好的灌溉技术之后，从1997年到2012年，滞后时间增加到15年。在堪萨斯州，这些技术与灌溉谷物产量的增加同时被采用，从1994年开始，预计滞后时间为24年。在内布拉斯加州，由于补给率高，预计到2050年谷物产量将继续增长。得克萨斯州和内布拉斯加州在1975年的灌溉产量相等，但到2050年，预计内布拉斯加州的地下水产量将是德克萨斯州的近10倍。