When benefits of proposed infrastructure investments are forecasted, residential location is usually treated as fixed, since very few operational transport models are able to forecast residential relocation. It has been argued that this may constitute a source of serious error or bias when evaluating and comparing the benefits of proposed infrastructure investments. We use a stylized simulation model of a metropolitan region to compare calculated benefits for a large number of infrastructure investments with and without taking changes in residential location into account. In particular, we explore the changes in project selection when assembling an optimal project portfolio under a budget constraint. The simulation model includes endogenous land prices and demand for residential land, heterogeneous preferences and wage offers across residents, and spillover mechanisms which affect wage rates in zones. The model is calibrated to generate realistic travel patterns and demand elasticities. Our results indicate that ignoring residential relocation has a small but appreciable effect on the selected project portfolio, but only a very small effect on achieved total benefits.

当对拟议的基础设施投资的收益进行预测时，通常将住宅位置视为固定位置，因为很少有可操作的运输模型能够预测住宅的重新安置。有人认为，在评估和比较拟议基础设施投资的收益时，这可能构成严重错误或偏见的来源。我们使用大都市区的程式化模拟模型来比较大量基础设施投资（无论是否考虑住宅位置变化）的计算收益。特别是，我们在预算约束下组装最佳项目组合时探索项目选择的变化。模拟模型包括内生土地价格和居民用地需求，居民之间的异质偏好和工资提供，影响区域工资率的溢出机制。对该模型进行校准以生成实际的行驶模式和需求弹性。我们的结果表明，忽略住宅的搬迁对选定的项目组合影响很小，但影响可观，但对实现的总收益影响很小。