Multi-model ensemble of Maximum (Tmax) and Minimum (Tmin) temperature data of four Representative Concentration Pathways viz., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models were generated for ten major groundnut growing locations of the India to predict the number of generations of Spodoptera litura (Fab.) using Growing Degree Days approach during three future climate viz., Near (NF), Distant (DF) and Very Distant (VDF) periods and were compared over 1976-2005 baseline period (BL). Projections indicate significant increase in Tmax (0.7-4.7 °C) and Tmin (0.7-5.1 °C) in NF, DF and VDF periods under the four RCP scenarios at the ten groundnut growing locations. Higher percent increase of the number of generations of S. litura was predicted to occur in VDF (6-38%) over baseline, followed by DF (5-22%) and NF (4-9%) periods with reduction of generation time (5-26%) across the four RCP scenarios. Reduction of crop duration was higher (12-22 days) in long duration groundnut than in medium and short duration groundnut. Decrease in crop duration was higher in VDF (12.1-20.8 days) than DF (8.26-13.15 days) and NF (4.46-6.15 days) climate change periods under RCP 8.5 scenario. Increase in number of generations of S. litura was predicted even with altered crop duration of groundnut. Among locations, more number of generations of S. litura with reduced generation time are likely at Vridhachalam and Tirupathi locations. Geographical location (74-77%) and climate period (15-19%), together explained over 90 percent of the total variation in the number of generations and generation time of S. litura. These findings suggest that the incidence of S. litura on groundnut could be higher in future.

中文翻译：

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基于代表性浓度途径 (RCP) 的气候变化情景下的斜纹夜蛾 (Fab.) 对花生的有害生物情景

为十个主要的耦合模型比对项目 5 (CMIP5) 模型生成了四个代表性浓度路径的最大 (Tmax) 和最小 (Tmin) 温度数据的多模型集合，即 RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0 和 RCP 8.5印度的花生种植地点，以在三个未来气候即近 (NF)、远 (DF) 和非常远 (VDF) 时期使用生长度日方法预测斜纹夜蛾 (Fab.) 的世代数，并进行比较超过 1976-2005 基线期 (BL)。预测表明，在 10 个花生种植地点的四种 RCP 情景下，NF、DF 和 VDF 期间的 Tmax (0.7-4.7 °C) 和 Tmin (0.7-5.1 °C) 显着增加。预计 VDF 中斜纹夜蛾世代数的增加百分比（6-38%）超过基线，其次是 DF (5-22%) 和 NF (4-9%) 时期，在四个 RCP 情景中减少了生成时间 (5-26%)。长寿命花生的作物持续时间减少（12-22 天）高于中短寿命花生。在 RCP 8.5 情景下，VDF（12.1-20.8 天）的作物持续时间减少高于 DF（8.26-13.15 天）和 NF（4.46-6.15 天）气候变化时期。即使改变了花生的作物持续时间，也预测了斜纹夜蛾世代数的增加。在位置中，在 Vridhachalam 和 Tirupathi 位置可能会有更多代 S. litura 且世代时间缩短。地理位置 (74-77%) 和气候周期 (15-19%) 共同解释了斜纹夜蛾世代数和世代时间总变异的 90% 以上。