Abstract Corrosion of buried pipes is complex and difficult to model without considering corrosiveness of the soil. To estimate the external corrosion of buried and aged oil and gas pipelines, a Bayesian spectral analysis regression is proposed. The depth of the corrosion pit progression on a bare metallic pipe is linked to the soil factors that are assumed to influence its rate. The time the pipe is exposed to these factors and the annual precipitations are added to the selected soil influencing factors. The relationship between the identified factors (covariates) and the depth of the corrosion pit (response variable) is expressed as a semiparametric. Thus, the complex electrochemical process of corrosion is represented mathematically. The proposed approach is applied to the data published online by the National Institute of Standard and Technology in the US. The results allow a better quantification of the uncertainty in the predictions for each factor and an improvement in the performance of statistical prediction models of external depth of the corrosion pit.

中文翻译：

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使用贝叶斯光谱分析对裸油气管道进行外部腐蚀点蚀深度预测

摘要 埋地管道的腐蚀复杂且难以在不考虑土壤腐蚀性的情况下建模。为了估计埋地和老化的油气管道的外部腐蚀，提出了贝叶斯谱分析回归。裸金属管上腐蚀坑进展的深度与假定影响其速率的土壤因素有关。管道暴露于这些因素的时间和年降水量被添加到选定的土壤影响因素中。确定的因素（协变量）与腐蚀坑深度（响应变量）之间的关系表示为半参数。因此，腐蚀的复杂电化学过程以数学方式表示。所提出的方法应用于美国国家标准与技术研究所在线发布的数据。结果允许更好地量化每个因素的预测中的不确定性，并改进腐蚀坑外部深度统计预测模型的性能。