Robust responses of typhoon hazards in northern Japan to global warming climate: cases of landfalling typhoons in 2016,Meteorological Applications

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Robust responses of typhoon hazards in northern Japan to global warming climate: cases of landfalling typhoons in 2016
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-04 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1954
Sridhara Nayak ₁ , Tetsuya Takemi ₁

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In August 2016, an unusual occurrence of the landfall of four typhoons in northern Japan caused severe and widespread damage by excessive rainfall and high wind. This study examines the characteristics and structure of these typhoons and the responses to the global warming climate to explore the robust features of typhoon hazards in northern Japan in a future warming climate. By obtaining similar typhoon tracks under the 2016 conditions and a pseudo global warming (PGW) climate, we found that the typhoon intensity under the PGW climate becomes stronger with higher lifetime maximum wind up to ~10 m·s⁻¹ and lower lifetime minimum sea level pressure of ~20 hPa. Rainfall associated with the typhoons indicated a robust increase in northern Japan in the PGW climate, while the changes in surface winds in the PGW climate depend on the case. A higher rate of intensification and more availability of energy are expected in the future warming climate especially over the landfall regions. All the typhoons except Typhoon Lionrock, after making landfall over Hokkaido region, exhibited a much deeper cold core structure in the future climate. Overall results suggest that the hazards related to typhoons over northern Japan will be more severe in the future warming climate.

中文翻译：

日本北部台风危害对全球变暖气候的强有力响应：2016年登陆台风的案例

2016年8月，在日本北部发生的一次罕见的四次台风登陆，由于降雨过多和大风，造成了严重而广泛的破坏。这项研究研究了这些台风的特征和结构，以及对全球变暖气候的响应，以探讨日本北部在未来变暖气候中台风危害的强大特征。通过在2016年的条件下获得类似的台风径迹和伪全球变暖（PGW）气候，我们发现，PGW气候下的台风强度随着寿命的增加而增加，最大风向最大为〜10 m·s ^-1使用寿命更长，最低海平面压力约为20 hPa。与台风有关的降雨表明，PGW气候在日本北部地区呈强劲增长，而PGW气候中的地面风的变化取决于情况。在未来的变暖气候中，尤其是在登陆地区，预计集约化速度将加快，能源供应将增加。在登陆北海道地区之后，除台风“莱昂洛克”（Lionrock）以外的所有台风在未来的气候中都表现出更深的冷芯结构。总体结果表明，在未来的气候变暖中，与日本北部台风有关的危害将更加严重。

更新日期：2020-10-05

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