Previous studies have interpreted Last Interglacial (LIG; ∼129–116 ka) sea‐level estimates in multiple different ways to calibrate projections of future Antarctic ice‐sheet (AIS) mass loss and associated sea‐level rise. This study systematically explores the extent to which LIG constraints could inform future Antarctic contributions to sea‐level rise. We develop a Gaussian process emulator of an ice‐sheet model to produce continuous probabilistic projections of Antarctic sea‐level contributions over the LIG and a future high‐emissions scenario. We use a Bayesian approach conditioning emulator projections on a set of LIG constraints to find associated likelihoods of model parameterizations. LIG estimates inform both the probability of past and future ice‐sheet instabilities and projections of future sea‐level rise through 2150. Although best‐available LIG estimates do not meaningfully constrain Antarctic mass loss projections or physical processes until 2060, they become increasingly informative over the next 130 years. Uncertainties of up to 50 cm remain in future projections even if LIG Antarctic mass loss is precisely known (±5 cm), indicating that there is a limit to how informative the LIG could be for ice‐sheet model future projections. The efficacy of LIG constraints on Antarctic mass loss also depends on assumptions about the Greenland ice sheet and LIG sea‐level chronology. However, improved field measurements and understanding of LIG sea levels still have potential to improve future sea‐level projections, highlighting the importance of continued observational efforts.

中文翻译：

---

最后的冰期间约束能否预测未来的南极冰块损失和海平面上升？

先前的研究已经解释了上一次冰期（LIG; 〜129–116 ka）以多种不同方式估算海平面，以校准对未来南极冰盖（AIS）质量损失和相关海平面上升的预测。这项研究系统地探讨了LIG约束可以在多大程度上告知南极未来对海平面上升的贡献。我们开发了一个冰盖模型的高斯过程仿真器，以产生关于LIG和未来高排放情景的南极海平面贡献的连续概率预测。我们在一组LIG约束条件下使用贝叶斯方法对仿真器进行投影，以找到模型参数化的相关可能性。LIG估计值既可以反映过去和将来冰盖不稳定的可能性，也可以预测到2150年未来海平面上升的趋势。尽管最有效的LIG估计值直到2060年都不会有意义地限制南极的质量损失预测或物理过程，但在接下来的130年中，它们将越来越有用。即使精确地知道了LIG南极的质量损失，未来的预测中仍存在高达50 cm的不确定性（± 5厘米），表明LIG对于冰盖模型的未来预测的信息量有限。LIG约束对南极质量损失的有效性还取决于对格陵兰冰盖和LIG海平面年表的假设。但是，改进的野外测量和对LIG海平面的理解仍然有可能改善未来的海平面预测，突出了继续进行观测工作的重要性。