Autonomous vehicles are expected to significantly disrupt the mode choice behavior of travelers. This study uses household travel data collected in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) to explore the potential impact of private autonomous vehicles (PAV) on household vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Two distinct scenarios are formulated to quantify the implications of PAVs on potential changes in household vehicle ownership and public transit ridership. We observe a feasible reduction in the total number of vehicles owned by a household with ownership of a PAV but at the expense of an average additional 57% daily VKT. In addition, we observe that PAVs have the potential to replace household transit trips while on average more than doubling daily VKT and GHG emissions. These findings can help guide policies that penalize empty miles and encourage ride sharing.

预计自动驾驶汽车将大大破坏旅行者的模式选择行为。这项研究使用在大多伦多地区和汉密尔顿地区（GTHA）收集的家庭旅行数据来探索私人自动驾驶汽车（PAV）对家用汽车行驶公里数（VKT）和温室气体排放量（GHG）的潜在影响。制定了两种不同的方案，以量化PAV对家用车辆拥有量和公共交通出行量的潜在变化的影响。我们发现拥有PAV的家庭拥有的车辆总数有切实可行的减少，但是平均每天要增加57％的VKT。此外，我们观察到，自动驾驶汽车有可能取代家庭出行旅行，而平均每日VKT和温室气体排放量则要增加一倍以上。