Changes in mountain landscape can affect avalanche activity, causing changes in risk, potentially enhanced by a transition of the socio-environmental system and its underlying dynamics. Thus, integrative approaches combining biophysical and social sciences are required to assess changes in risk in all its dimensions. This study proposes a holistic methodology combining land cover change detection using advanced image processing techniques, geohistorical investigations and qualitative modelling of risk changes in order to infer the evolution of avalanche risk and its drivers in the upper Maurienne (French Alps) from 1860 to 2017. Results show that a continuous increase of forested areas associated with the retraction of agro-pastoral zones followed a period of land abandonment and depopulation. However, reforestation within avalanche paths remains largely incomplete and mostly absent in the majority of release areas, making a decrease in avalanche occurrence and propagation unlikely. This, combined with marked urban sprawl partially concentrated in avalanche prone areas, locally increased the exposure of residential settlements to avalanches. Hence, even if new defense structures have been set up, our analysis indicates that avalanche risk in the upper Maurienne increased through the study period. Even if local specificity related to physical dissimilarities and/or distinguished socio-economic trends always exist, our results may be valid for many high alpine valleys. Our approach is also transferable to other natural hazards, notably in wider mountain environments, as a contribution to the elaboration of effective adaptation strategies in a context of increasing risks related to combined climate change and socio-economic transitions.

山地景观的变化会影响雪崩活动，导致风险发生变化，而这种变化可能会因社会环境系统及其潜在动力的转变而加剧。因此，需要结合生物物理学和社会科学的综合方法来评估其所有方面的风险变化。这项研究提出了一种整体方法论，该方法结合了使用先进的图像处理技术进行土地覆盖变化检测，地理历史调查和风险变化的定性模型，以推断1860年至2017年上茂里纳（法国阿尔卑斯山）雪崩风险及其驱动因素的演变。结果表明，在一段时间的土地遗弃和人口减少之后，与农牧区退缩相关的森林面积不断增加。然而，雪崩路径内的重新造林仍未完全完成，在大多数释放区中几乎没有，因此雪崩发生和传播的可能性不大。再加上明显的城市扩张部分集中在雪崩易发地区，当地增加了居民点对雪崩的暴露。因此，即使已经建立了新的防御结构，我们的分析也表明，在整个研究期间，毛里安河上游的雪崩风险增加了。即使始终存在与物理差异和/或明显的社会经济趋势有关的局部特异性，我们的结果对于许多高高山山谷也可能是有效的。我们的方法还可以转移到其他自然灾害中，尤其是在更广阔的山区环境中，