Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than covid-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that generate such extreme risk, and for navigating it, for government, business, and the public?

中文翻译：

---

回归定律：如何在 Covid-19、气候危机和其他灾难中生存

回归均值是好的和可靠的。回归到尾部确实是可怕的。我们生活在回归到尾巴的时代。比covid-19更严重的流行病袭击我们只是时间问题，气候比我们所见过的更极端。对于政府、企业和公众而言，产生这种极端风险以及应对这种风险的基本原则是什么？