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Transport effect of COVID-19 pandemic in France
Annual Reviews in Control ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.arcontrol.2020.09.009
Lina Guan , Christophe Prieur , Liguo Zhang , Clémentine Prieur , Didier Georges , Pascal Bellemain

An extension of the classical pandemic SIRD model is considered for the regional spread of COVID-19 in France under lockdown strategies. This compartment model divides the infected and the recovered individuals into undetected and detected compartments respectively. By fitting the extended model to the real detected data during the lockdown, an optimization algorithm is used to derive the optimal parameters, the initial condition and the epidemics start date of regions in France. Considering all the age classes together, a network model of the pandemic transport between regions in France is presented on the basis of the regional extended model and is simulated to reveal the transport effect of COVID-19 pandemic after lockdown. Using the measured values of displacement of people between cities, the pandemic network of all cities in France is simulated by using the same model and method as the pandemic network of regions. Finally, a discussion on an integro-differential equation is given and a new model for the network pandemic model of each age class is provided.



中文翻译:

法国COVID-19大流行的传播效应

在锁定策略下,法国大流行SIRD模型的扩展被认为适用于COVID-19在法国的区域传播。该隔室模型将感染和恢复的个体分别分为未检测到的和检测到的隔室。通过在锁定期间将扩展模型拟合到实际检测到的数据,可以使用优化算法来得出最佳参数,初始条件和法国各地区的流行病开始日期。考虑到所有年龄段,在区域扩展模型的基础上,提出了法国各地区之间大流行性传播的网络模型,并进行了模拟,以揭示锁定后COVID-19大流行的传播效应。利用城市之间的人口迁移测量值,法国所有城市的大流行网络都是通过与区域大流行网络相同的模型和方法来模拟的。最后,讨论了积分微分方程,并为每个年龄段的网络流行模型提供了新模型。

更新日期:2020-10-05
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