Biomass fires in Indonesia emit high levels of greenhouse gases and particulate matter, key contributors to global climate change and poor air quality in south-east Asia. In order to better understand the drivers of biomass fires across Indonesia over multiple years, we examined the distribution and probability of fires in Sumatra, Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) and Papua (western New Guinea) over four entire calendar years (2002, 2005, 2011 and 2015). The 4 years of data represent years with El Nino and La Nina conditions and high levels of data availability in the study region. Generalised linear mixed-effects models and zero-inflated negative binomial models were used to relate fire hotspots and a range of spatial predictor data. Geographic differences in occurrences of fire hotspots were evident. Fire probability was greatest in mixed-production agriculture lands and in deeper, degraded peatlands, suggesting anthropogenic activities were strong determinants of burning. Drought conditions in El Nino years were also significant. The results demonstrate the importance of prioritising areas of high fire probability, based on land use and other predisposing conditions, in effective fire management planning.

中文翻译：

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印度尼西亚森林和土地火灾的空间相关性

印度尼西亚的生物质火灾排放出大量温室气体和颗粒物，是造成全球气候变化和东南亚空气质量差的关键因素。为了更好地了解多年来印度尼西亚生物质火灾的驱动因素，我们研究了苏门答腊、加里曼丹（印度尼西亚婆罗洲）和巴布亚（新几内亚西部）四个完整日历年（2002、2005、2011）火灾的分布和概率和 2015 年）。4 年的数据代表了厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜条件以及研究区域数据可用性高的年份。广义线性混合效应模型和零膨胀负二项式模型用于关联火灾热点和一系列空间预测数据。火灾热点发生的地理差异很明显。在混合生产的农业用地和更深的退化泥炭地发生火灾的可能性最大，这表明人为活动是燃烧的重要决定因素。厄尔尼诺年的干旱情况也很严重。结果表明，在有效的火灾管理规划中，根据土地利用和其他易感条件，优先考虑火灾概率高的区域的重要性。