The main goal of this study is to explore whether the ideas established by surface water hydrologists in the context of “PUB” (predictions in ungauged basins) can be useful in hydrogeology. The concrete question is whether it is possible to create predictive models for groundwater systems with no or few observations based on knowledge derived from similar groundwater systems which are well‐observed. To do so, this study analyses the relationship between temporal dynamics of groundwater levels and climatic and physiographic characteristics. The analysis is based on data from 341 wells in Southern Germany with ten‐year daily groundwater hydrographs. Observation wells are used in confined and unconfined sand and gravel aquifers from narrow mountainous valleys as well as more extensive lowland alluvial aquifers. Groundwater dynamics at each location are summarized with 46 indices describing features of groundwater hydrographs. Besides borehole log‐derived geologic information, local and regional morphologic characteristics as well as topography‐derived boundary and climatic descriptors were derived for each well. Regression relationships were established by mining the data for associations between dynamics and descriptors with forward stepwise regression at a confidence level >95%. The most important predictors are geology and boundary conditions and secondarily, climate, as well as some topographic features, such as regional convergence. The multiple regression models are in general agreement with process understanding linked to groundwater dynamics in unconfined aquifers. This systematic investigation suggests that statistical regionalization of groundwater dynamics in ungauged aquifers based on map‐derived physiographic and climatic controls may be feasible.

中文翻译：

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区域地下水动态的地貌和气候控制

本研究的主要目标是探索地表水水文学家在“PUB”（未测量盆地预测）背景下建立的想法是否可用于水文地质学。具体的问题是，是否有可能根据从观测良好的类似地下水系统中获得的知识，为没有观测或观测很少的地下水系统创建预测模型。为此，本研究分析了地下水位的时间动态与气候和地貌特征之间的关系。该分析基于德国南部 341 口井的数据以及十年每日地下水水位线。观测井用于狭窄山区山谷的承压和非承压砂砾含水层以及更广泛的低地冲积含水层。用 46 个描述地下水水位线特征的指数总结了每个位置的地下水动态。除了钻孔测井导出的地质信息外，还导出了每口井的局部和区域形态特征以及地形导出的边界和气候描述符。回归关系是通过在置信水平 > 95% 的情况下使用正向逐步回归挖掘动态和描述符之间关联的数据来建立的。最重要的预测因素是地质和边界条件，其次是气候以及一些地形特征，例如区域会聚。多元回归模型与与非承压含水层中地下水动态相关的过程理解基本一致。