当前位置: X-MOL 学术Landslides › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Probabilistic evaluation of loess landslide impact using multivariate model
Landslides ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s10346-020-01521-4
Ling Xu , Dongdong Yan , Tengyuan Zhao

The Loess Plateau is the largest loess accumulation area around the world, onto which loess landslides have been occurring frequently each year, thus bringing significant threats to communities there. To mitigate or manage the risk brought by loess landslides, many methods have been developed to gain insights into mechanisms that trigger loess landslides, or to identify regions that are susceptible to landslides through landslide susceptibility mapping. However, none of these methods can be used to quantitatively evaluate possible impact of potentially unstable slopes, which offers important information for risk management, especially for regions with high susceptibility to landslides. This study aims to fill this gap by constructing a loess landslide database first from field investigation. Then, a multivariate model for loess landslide data, including its height, width, area, and length, is developed considering correlation among these parameters. Subsequently, the multivariate model is used to predict statistically and quantitatively impact of a potentially unstable loess slope, in terms of slide width, length, and area, given height of the potentially unstable loess slope. The proposed method is applied to loess landslides occurred in Baoji City for illustration. Results show that the proposed method works reasonably well. In addition, some key equations are provided using results from the multivariate model. With these equations, geotechnical engineers or decision-makers can evaluate possible impact of a potentially unstable loess slope with minimal effort.

中文翻译:

基于多元模型的黄土滑坡影响概率评价

黄土高原是世界上最大的黄土堆积区,每年都频繁发生黄土滑坡,给当地社区带来重大威胁。为了减轻或管理黄土滑坡带来的风险,已经开发了许多方法来深入了解触发黄土滑坡的机制,或通过滑坡敏感性绘图识别容易发生滑坡的区域。然而,这些方法都不能用于定量评估潜在不稳定斜坡的可能影响,这为风险管理提供了重要信息,特别是对于滑坡易感性高的地区。本研究旨在通过首先从实地调查构建黄土滑坡数据库来填补这一空白。然后,黄土滑坡数据的多元模型,包括其高度、宽度、面积和长度,是考虑到这些参数之间的相关性而开发的。随后,在给定潜在不稳定黄土边坡高度的情况下,多变量模型用于在统计上和定量地预测潜在不稳定黄土边坡在滑坡宽度、长度和面积方面的影响。以宝鸡市发生的黄土滑坡为例,说明该方法。结果表明,所提出的方法工作得相当好。此外,还使用多变量模型的结果提供了一些关键方程。通过这些方程,岩土工程师或决策者可以轻松地评估潜在不稳定黄土边坡的可能影响。给定潜在不稳定黄土斜坡的高度,多变量模型用于在统计和定量方面预测潜在不稳定黄土斜坡在滑坡宽度、长度和面积方面的影响。将该方法应用于宝鸡市发生的黄土滑坡进行说明。结果表明,所提出的方法工作得相当好。此外,还使用多变量模型的结果提供了一些关键方程。通过这些方程,岩土工程师或决策者可以轻松地评估潜在不稳定黄土边坡的可能影响。给定潜在不稳定黄土斜坡的高度,多变量模型用于在统计和定量方面预测潜在不稳定黄土斜坡在滑坡宽度、长度和面积方面的影响。将该方法应用于宝鸡市发生的黄土滑坡进行说明。结果表明,所提出的方法工作得相当好。此外,还使用多变量模型的结果提供了一些关键方程。通过这些方程,岩土工程师或决策者可以轻松地评估潜在不稳定黄土边坡的可能影响。将该方法应用于宝鸡市发生的黄土滑坡进行说明。结果表明,所提出的方法工作得相当好。此外,还使用多变量模型的结果提供了一些关键方程。通过这些方程,岩土工程师或决策者可以轻松地评估潜在不稳定黄土边坡的可能影响。将该方法应用于宝鸡市发生的黄土滑坡进行说明。结果表明,所提出的方法工作得相当好。此外,还使用多变量模型的结果提供了一些关键方程。通过这些方程,岩土工程师或决策者可以轻松地评估潜在不稳定黄土边坡的可能影响。
更新日期:2020-10-04
down
wechat
bug